I’ve been pretty good on my predictions so far. Here’s what I think will most likely happen going forward. I’m sure I won’t get every detail correct, but I believe it will go something like this.
The next 6 weeks or so are going to be rough. New York is going to get real ugly. Thousands and thousands of people are going to die there. New Jersey will be especially bad as well. California and Washington and maybe Chicago will also be hot spots, but none will be near as bad as the New York/New Jersey area. As the death count keeps going up, more and more states are going to have some form of shelter in place/lock down. It’s probably going to vary state by state, with the harder hit states locking down more and the lesser hit states locking down less. These shut downs will suppress the outbreak. It’s important to keep in mind that it takes 10 to 15 days before you see any benefit from these in terms of reduced new cases and deaths.
We’re going to keep ramping up testing. It’ll be 50,000 tests per day, then 100,000 per day, then probably more. Within a few weeks we’re going to be doing as good or better than anyone in the world as far as testing. We got a late start on it but in the end it will be a strength for us. Testing is key. Korea has largely kept their outbreak under control with testing alone.
Some of these medications they’re talking about will pan out. They won’t totally solve the problem, but they’ll make it significantly better. It’ll take 4 to 8 weeks at least before they are tested, approved, and fully implemented, but once they are they may make the situation 30-60% better.
The summer warm weather will help. It’ll reduce this thing anywhere from 20% to 50%. That will be good.
So between all those factors, we’ll start to see this thing settle down in May or maybe June. It won’t go away entirely, but it’ll be much improved compared to where it was in April.
We aren’t going to be able to let up on the lock downs until at least June or July. We’ll see quite a bit of stimulus from congress in the form of corporate bailouts, stimulus checks sent out to everybody, and beefed up unemployment benefits for everyone that’s unemployed. That won’t save the stock market from going down in the neighborhood of 50%, but it’ll stave of total calamity.
Then in June or July they’ll start to ease up on the lockdown rules. But not all the way. People will start to work again. Stores will open. Maybe bars and restaurants (although maybe not). But large gatherings may still be banned. Which would mean no baseball, football, or basketball (or Olympics) this year. Schools may open again in late August if we’ve really got a handle on this.
And then for the next year or two, we’re going to have to keep doing massive amounts of coronavirus tests. We’re going to do millions and millions of them. People will regularly be screened, and any time someone tests positive, they and everyone they’ve been in contact with will have to be quarantined for 2 weeks. This will be annoying but Korea and Japan are doing this and it works. We’ll do it too. Drugs will keep getting better over the course of the year too, so that will help.
They’ll keep working on the vaccine and at some point next spring or summer it’ll be ready, and then everybody will get it and this will finally be over.
It’ll suck, but most will survive, and we’ll get through it.
Bookmark this and feel free to throw it in my face in a few months if I turn out to be wrong.
The next 6 weeks or so are going to be rough. New York is going to get real ugly. Thousands and thousands of people are going to die there. New Jersey will be especially bad as well. California and Washington and maybe Chicago will also be hot spots, but none will be near as bad as the New York/New Jersey area. As the death count keeps going up, more and more states are going to have some form of shelter in place/lock down. It’s probably going to vary state by state, with the harder hit states locking down more and the lesser hit states locking down less. These shut downs will suppress the outbreak. It’s important to keep in mind that it takes 10 to 15 days before you see any benefit from these in terms of reduced new cases and deaths.
We’re going to keep ramping up testing. It’ll be 50,000 tests per day, then 100,000 per day, then probably more. Within a few weeks we’re going to be doing as good or better than anyone in the world as far as testing. We got a late start on it but in the end it will be a strength for us. Testing is key. Korea has largely kept their outbreak under control with testing alone.
Some of these medications they’re talking about will pan out. They won’t totally solve the problem, but they’ll make it significantly better. It’ll take 4 to 8 weeks at least before they are tested, approved, and fully implemented, but once they are they may make the situation 30-60% better.
The summer warm weather will help. It’ll reduce this thing anywhere from 20% to 50%. That will be good.
So between all those factors, we’ll start to see this thing settle down in May or maybe June. It won’t go away entirely, but it’ll be much improved compared to where it was in April.
We aren’t going to be able to let up on the lock downs until at least June or July. We’ll see quite a bit of stimulus from congress in the form of corporate bailouts, stimulus checks sent out to everybody, and beefed up unemployment benefits for everyone that’s unemployed. That won’t save the stock market from going down in the neighborhood of 50%, but it’ll stave of total calamity.
Then in June or July they’ll start to ease up on the lockdown rules. But not all the way. People will start to work again. Stores will open. Maybe bars and restaurants (although maybe not). But large gatherings may still be banned. Which would mean no baseball, football, or basketball (or Olympics) this year. Schools may open again in late August if we’ve really got a handle on this.
And then for the next year or two, we’re going to have to keep doing massive amounts of coronavirus tests. We’re going to do millions and millions of them. People will regularly be screened, and any time someone tests positive, they and everyone they’ve been in contact with will have to be quarantined for 2 weeks. This will be annoying but Korea and Japan are doing this and it works. We’ll do it too. Drugs will keep getting better over the course of the year too, so that will help.
They’ll keep working on the vaccine and at some point next spring or summer it’ll be ready, and then everybody will get it and this will finally be over.
It’ll suck, but most will survive, and we’ll get through it.
Bookmark this and feel free to throw it in my face in a few months if I turn out to be wrong.
