This is not meant to be in support of Odom. But the question keeps arising.. Was this a Rebuild? Whether it would have been Odom or another HC taking over. It seems like a lot of us are sure it was. And just as many are sure it wasn't. I believe it was a significant rebuild. And I'll make the case for why, trying to just use facts. Take your shots. But it would also be a great opportunity to just have some good discussion.
First, our recruiting has never been great. But Pinkel found a way to win and have some very good years. That being said, why would a coach with 25 years of HC experience win only 5 games in 2015? And beginning in 2016, what did Odom really inherit?
Let's start simply with Rivals Recruiting Class Rankings okay?
2016 #47
2015 #27
2014 #34
2013 #41
Avg 2013-2016 #37 (#15 in SEC ahead of Vandy)
Avg 2001-2012 #33
So, on the surface, Pinkel's average class in his last 4 years (#33) was lower than his average class in his first 12 years (#37). But not horribly different. So that's what Odom inherited right? Perhaps just a slight dropoff in talent from the previous 4 classes, based on Rivals ranking? On paper, yes. In terms of players on the field, not even close. Let me explain why.
There had been some discussion that perhaps the staff had loosened some of its selection criteria, with regard to character, qualification risks, etc, and focused more on just athleticism. That may or may not have been true. But of those classes which ranked #37 on average, and next to last in the SEC to begin with, were those players really available to Odom?
I looked back at the classes and what happened to some of the commits.. particularly the highly-rated kids, as well as a few position groups where we are thin... DE, WR, DB, etc. DNC means Did Not Contribute. The level of attrition that has occurred is kind of shocking, and clearly higher than you would expect... (Pls point out any mistakes)
2013
Chase Abbington 5.8 4* WR DNC; Quit
Trent Hossington 5.7 QB Quit
Antar Thompson 5.7 DT Did not qualify
Eddie Prnitz 5.7 QB DNC; Quit
Marcus Loud 5.7 DE Dismissed
Charles Harris DE Left year early for NFL
2014
Andy Bauer 5.9 4* DNC; Injured; Quit
Walter Brady 5.7 DE Dismissed
Rocel McWilliams 5.6 DE DNC; Transferred
Nate Brown 5.8 WR Only WR to Contribute
Lawrence Lee 5.6 WR DNC
DeSean Blair 5.6 WR DNC
Thomas Richard 5.5 WR DNC
DG Beckham 5.2 WR DNC
2015
Naterace Strong 5.8 4* RB DNC
Chase Abbington 5.8 4* DNC; Quit
Marcel Frazier 5.7 DE Dismissed (Starter)
Tyrell Jacobs 5.5 DE DNC; changed to DT
2016
*Naterace Strong 5.8 4* RB DNC; Quit
Tre Williams 5.8 4* DE Only DE commit
Harry Ballard 5.7 WR DNC; Pending Dismissal
Dominic Collins 5.5 WR DNC
Dimetrious Mason 5.5 WR Dismissed (Starter)
Christian Holmes 5.5 WR Switched to DB
* Yes Naterace Strong got counted as 4* in two successive recruiting classes, DNC, then left
Conclusions
Our average class rank was #37, on paper, which was already next to last in the SEC
Missouri has had almost a perfect strorm of attrition or failure to contribute, especially among the highest ranked recruits from the 2013-2016 classes
11 players rated 5.7 or higher (including 5 4* players) ended up being dismissed or quitting, most having never contributed
Of the 7 DE commits, 1 is currently starting. 2 were dismissed who would have started this year. 1 transferred, 1 switched to DT, and 1 played in 2016 then left a year early for the NFL.
Of the 14 WR commits who could be eligible this year, only two are contributing, Nate Brown and Jonathon Johnson. Hall has been injured most of the year. Mason and Ballard were projected to start but got dismissed. The remaining 9 have been passed by freshmen and sophomores.
With regard to the defensive backs, I'm not going to go player by player. I think it's enough to point out this. Of the 4 starting DB's, 2 of them are 1st or 2nd year players. Of the 8 on the two deep, 5 are 1st or second year. That means there are only 3 players contributing from the 2014-2016 recruiting classes. And cam Hilton is our only DB in his 4th year. Upperclassmen should form the backbone of most position groups or at least the majority of contributors. Clearly, this is not the case, and is part of the issue we have with our secondary depth and experience.
I'm not sure how to quantify the impact of this much attrition. However, it seems pretty clear that the average class ranking of #37, which was next to last in the SEC to begin with, dramatically overstates how much of that talent is really on the field.
First, our recruiting has never been great. But Pinkel found a way to win and have some very good years. That being said, why would a coach with 25 years of HC experience win only 5 games in 2015? And beginning in 2016, what did Odom really inherit?
Let's start simply with Rivals Recruiting Class Rankings okay?
2016 #47
2015 #27
2014 #34
2013 #41
Avg 2013-2016 #37 (#15 in SEC ahead of Vandy)
Avg 2001-2012 #33
So, on the surface, Pinkel's average class in his last 4 years (#33) was lower than his average class in his first 12 years (#37). But not horribly different. So that's what Odom inherited right? Perhaps just a slight dropoff in talent from the previous 4 classes, based on Rivals ranking? On paper, yes. In terms of players on the field, not even close. Let me explain why.
There had been some discussion that perhaps the staff had loosened some of its selection criteria, with regard to character, qualification risks, etc, and focused more on just athleticism. That may or may not have been true. But of those classes which ranked #37 on average, and next to last in the SEC to begin with, were those players really available to Odom?
I looked back at the classes and what happened to some of the commits.. particularly the highly-rated kids, as well as a few position groups where we are thin... DE, WR, DB, etc. DNC means Did Not Contribute. The level of attrition that has occurred is kind of shocking, and clearly higher than you would expect... (Pls point out any mistakes)
2013
Chase Abbington 5.8 4* WR DNC; Quit
Trent Hossington 5.7 QB Quit
Antar Thompson 5.7 DT Did not qualify
Eddie Prnitz 5.7 QB DNC; Quit
Marcus Loud 5.7 DE Dismissed
Charles Harris DE Left year early for NFL
2014
Andy Bauer 5.9 4* DNC; Injured; Quit
Walter Brady 5.7 DE Dismissed
Rocel McWilliams 5.6 DE DNC; Transferred
Nate Brown 5.8 WR Only WR to Contribute
Lawrence Lee 5.6 WR DNC
DeSean Blair 5.6 WR DNC
Thomas Richard 5.5 WR DNC
DG Beckham 5.2 WR DNC
2015
Naterace Strong 5.8 4* RB DNC
Chase Abbington 5.8 4* DNC; Quit
Marcel Frazier 5.7 DE Dismissed (Starter)
Tyrell Jacobs 5.5 DE DNC; changed to DT
2016
*Naterace Strong 5.8 4* RB DNC; Quit
Tre Williams 5.8 4* DE Only DE commit
Harry Ballard 5.7 WR DNC; Pending Dismissal
Dominic Collins 5.5 WR DNC
Dimetrious Mason 5.5 WR Dismissed (Starter)
Christian Holmes 5.5 WR Switched to DB
* Yes Naterace Strong got counted as 4* in two successive recruiting classes, DNC, then left
Conclusions
Our average class rank was #37, on paper, which was already next to last in the SEC
Missouri has had almost a perfect strorm of attrition or failure to contribute, especially among the highest ranked recruits from the 2013-2016 classes
11 players rated 5.7 or higher (including 5 4* players) ended up being dismissed or quitting, most having never contributed
Of the 7 DE commits, 1 is currently starting. 2 were dismissed who would have started this year. 1 transferred, 1 switched to DT, and 1 played in 2016 then left a year early for the NFL.
Of the 14 WR commits who could be eligible this year, only two are contributing, Nate Brown and Jonathon Johnson. Hall has been injured most of the year. Mason and Ballard were projected to start but got dismissed. The remaining 9 have been passed by freshmen and sophomores.
With regard to the defensive backs, I'm not going to go player by player. I think it's enough to point out this. Of the 4 starting DB's, 2 of them are 1st or 2nd year players. Of the 8 on the two deep, 5 are 1st or second year. That means there are only 3 players contributing from the 2014-2016 recruiting classes. And cam Hilton is our only DB in his 4th year. Upperclassmen should form the backbone of most position groups or at least the majority of contributors. Clearly, this is not the case, and is part of the issue we have with our secondary depth and experience.
I'm not sure how to quantify the impact of this much attrition. However, it seems pretty clear that the average class ranking of #37, which was next to last in the SEC to begin with, dramatically overstates how much of that talent is really on the field.
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