The last time I wrote about Mizzou’s lineup stats, the team still had a winning record. Caleb Grill was still slated to come back from injury in a few weeks. The idea that the Tigers wouldn’t win a game in conference play probably hadn’t entered anyone’s mind yet.
The team’s played in 17 games since its last victory, a meaningless 92-59 drubbing over Central Arkansas on Dec. 30. MU’s now 14 games below .500. Grill has yet to return to the court. And the idea that Missouri’s going winless in conference play is more realistic than not.
The sample size for the lineup data has more than doubled over the past two months, which has painted a clearer picture of what’s gone wrong for the black and gold. The main question being asked back at the end of 2023 was “Will Dennis Gates settle into an eight-man rotation?” We have the answer now: He never did. Or at least, he never could because of the lack of depth at the wing position due to Grill and John Tonje both suffering season-ending injuries.
With those two out, Mizzou’s head coach has scrambled all year long trying to find a cohesive five-man lineup. If a group looked promising one night, it often didn’t perform as well the next.
“Some nights, we may hit 10 threes, other nights we may hit two,” Gates said after his team’s 91-84 home loss to Arkansas on Jan. 31. “Some nights we get to the line, some nights we don't. Sometimes we get positive assist-turnover-ratio — it's just the inconsistencies that is happening. We don't know going into the game … what stats we can really count on and what department we can get it. So it's sort of like on the sideline, you're trying to figure out which guys are ready to play, ready to produce at that moment. And again, no one's gonna have sympathy or empathy for us. We gotta go out there and compete.”
The lack of stability was a puzzle Gates could never solve. That struggle is demonstrated in the lineup data (all of which is being provided by CBB Analytics in this column). Last season, the Tigers rolled out 280 unique lineup combinations. They’re already up to 323 this year with a minimum of two games remaining on their slate. The 2022-23 team had 25 five different lineups play at least 14 minutes (the minimum number needed to qualify for national rankings). The 2023-24 team has only had 13 lineups plays that much so far (though, a few more could reach that threshold in the last few outings of the season).
Here are some of the groups from this year’s squad that stand out.
The most-played unit
Nick Honor-Sean East II-Tamar Bates-Noah Carter-Aidan Shaw
This was actually one of Mizzou’s better lineups through non-conference play. In 35 minutes across the team’s first 13 games, the group boasted a net rating of +19.5, buoyed by a defensive rating of 76.9 points per 100 possessions, which ranked in the 91st percentile among all NCAA Division I schools.
Those numbers have dropped precipitously since then, though. In 45 minutes of action across 17 games of conference play, the group was outscored by 29 points for a net rating of 13.5. While the unit is still generating turnovers at a high clip, coming up with a takeaway 19.2% of the time on defense, it’s now allowing opponents to score 122.7 points per 100 possessions.
Coming into the year, this lineup was an obvious candidate to receive a big chunk of the team’s minutes. But its net rating of -13.5 has rendered it mostly ineffective. Last year, the head coach knew who his best five were: Honor, D’Moi Hodge, DeAndre Gholston, Carter and Kobe Brown. That group played together for 157 minutes, nearly twice as much as the 80 minutes this year’s most-played lineup saw.
Unlike last season, Gates was forced to turn to other options.
The least effective unit
Honor-East-Bates-Shaw-Jordan Butler
Butler received a big bump in playing time over the course of SEC play, starting the past 12 games for Mizzou. However, his frontcourt pairing with Shaw has led to disastrous results, even with the team's best perimeter players surrounding them. In 21 minutes played, the group has a net rating of -43.9, which ranks in the bottom 5th percentile in the country. The lineup is in the bottom half of the nation in all of the offensive and defensive “four factors” stat categories — effective field goal percentage, rebounding rate, free throw rate and turnover percentage.
The Tigers have been outscored by 16.1 points per 100 possessions in the 81 minutes Butler and Shaw have shared together. That mark improved marginally when one or the other is on the bench and jumped significantly when they’re both off the court, the team posting a net rating of 3.1 in 474 minutes without them. What’s also interesting is the duo’s impact on the boards: when playing together, Missouri got to 38.0% of its own misses, which ranks in the 97th percentile, but also only secured 57.1% of available defensive rebounds, which ranks in the bottom 1%.
That’s not to say the two forwards can’t improve down the line. It’s normal for underclassmen to struggle at this point in their careers. Gates likely didn’t plan to play Butler as much as he has this season — the freshman got thrown into the fire out of necessity. But the early returns haven’t been good.
The most effective units
Honor-East-Bates-Carter-Trent Pierce
Honor-East-Grill-Carter-Shaw
These lineups had the benefit of not going up against MU’s toughest opponents this season. The top group has played a total of two minutes in conference play, while the bottom group hasn’t been available since Grill went down with an injury against Wichita State on Dec. 3.
Still, the units were impressive against the opponents they did face. The first lineup scored 144.0 points per 100 possessions, which ranks in the 97th percentile in the NCAA, and had a net rating of 39.0 — a mark that would’ve been Mizzou’s fourth-best last season. The second lineup was slightly more balanced, ranking in the 83rd percentile offensively and the 79th percentile defensively for a net rating of 32.3.
While both units largely took advantage of easier matchups, it still would’ve been interesting to see how well the groups would’ve held up had Grill and Pierce remained healthy for the full season. Grill, in particular, gave the team an added edge on the defensive end that the Tigers have missed since he’s been out.
The most effective unit in SEC play
Honor-East-Bates-Jesus Carralero Martin-Butler
The team has just four lineup combinations that have played at least nine minutes together and produced a positive net rating against conference opponents. Carralero Martin is included in all of them, along with Honor and East.
This group has done two things at a high level. It does a good job of taking care of the ball, coughing it up on just 5.0% of its possessions, which ranks in the 98th percentile in the country. It’s also surprisingly stingy on defense, with opponents being held to an effective field goal percentage (which takes into account the added value of 3-pointers) of 39.2%, which ranks in the 90th percentile.
The lineup still has its shortcomings on both ends, rarely getting to the free throw line and giving up a high number of offensive rebounds. But in the 24 minutes it's been on the floor across seven games, it’s boasted a net rating of 13.6.
“Zeus” appears to be at his best when filling in as a true power forward, slotting in next to a center who can defend the opponent’s biggest player. He ranks in the top 90% of the nation’s forwards in both block and steal rates. And while he turns the ball over at a sky-high clip, it’s a result of him trying to throw his teammates open — Carralero Martin has the second-highest assist rate on the roster, accounting for 21.7% of the Tigers’ dimes while he’s on the floor, second only to East.
Other takeaways
The team’s played in 17 games since its last victory, a meaningless 92-59 drubbing over Central Arkansas on Dec. 30. MU’s now 14 games below .500. Grill has yet to return to the court. And the idea that Missouri’s going winless in conference play is more realistic than not.
The sample size for the lineup data has more than doubled over the past two months, which has painted a clearer picture of what’s gone wrong for the black and gold. The main question being asked back at the end of 2023 was “Will Dennis Gates settle into an eight-man rotation?” We have the answer now: He never did. Or at least, he never could because of the lack of depth at the wing position due to Grill and John Tonje both suffering season-ending injuries.
With those two out, Mizzou’s head coach has scrambled all year long trying to find a cohesive five-man lineup. If a group looked promising one night, it often didn’t perform as well the next.
“Some nights, we may hit 10 threes, other nights we may hit two,” Gates said after his team’s 91-84 home loss to Arkansas on Jan. 31. “Some nights we get to the line, some nights we don't. Sometimes we get positive assist-turnover-ratio — it's just the inconsistencies that is happening. We don't know going into the game … what stats we can really count on and what department we can get it. So it's sort of like on the sideline, you're trying to figure out which guys are ready to play, ready to produce at that moment. And again, no one's gonna have sympathy or empathy for us. We gotta go out there and compete.”
The lack of stability was a puzzle Gates could never solve. That struggle is demonstrated in the lineup data (all of which is being provided by CBB Analytics in this column). Last season, the Tigers rolled out 280 unique lineup combinations. They’re already up to 323 this year with a minimum of two games remaining on their slate. The 2022-23 team had 25 five different lineups play at least 14 minutes (the minimum number needed to qualify for national rankings). The 2023-24 team has only had 13 lineups plays that much so far (though, a few more could reach that threshold in the last few outings of the season).
Here are some of the groups from this year’s squad that stand out.
The most-played unit
Nick Honor-Sean East II-Tamar Bates-Noah Carter-Aidan Shaw
This was actually one of Mizzou’s better lineups through non-conference play. In 35 minutes across the team’s first 13 games, the group boasted a net rating of +19.5, buoyed by a defensive rating of 76.9 points per 100 possessions, which ranked in the 91st percentile among all NCAA Division I schools.
Those numbers have dropped precipitously since then, though. In 45 minutes of action across 17 games of conference play, the group was outscored by 29 points for a net rating of 13.5. While the unit is still generating turnovers at a high clip, coming up with a takeaway 19.2% of the time on defense, it’s now allowing opponents to score 122.7 points per 100 possessions.
Coming into the year, this lineup was an obvious candidate to receive a big chunk of the team’s minutes. But its net rating of -13.5 has rendered it mostly ineffective. Last year, the head coach knew who his best five were: Honor, D’Moi Hodge, DeAndre Gholston, Carter and Kobe Brown. That group played together for 157 minutes, nearly twice as much as the 80 minutes this year’s most-played lineup saw.
Unlike last season, Gates was forced to turn to other options.
The least effective unit
Honor-East-Bates-Shaw-Jordan Butler
Butler received a big bump in playing time over the course of SEC play, starting the past 12 games for Mizzou. However, his frontcourt pairing with Shaw has led to disastrous results, even with the team's best perimeter players surrounding them. In 21 minutes played, the group has a net rating of -43.9, which ranks in the bottom 5th percentile in the country. The lineup is in the bottom half of the nation in all of the offensive and defensive “four factors” stat categories — effective field goal percentage, rebounding rate, free throw rate and turnover percentage.
The Tigers have been outscored by 16.1 points per 100 possessions in the 81 minutes Butler and Shaw have shared together. That mark improved marginally when one or the other is on the bench and jumped significantly when they’re both off the court, the team posting a net rating of 3.1 in 474 minutes without them. What’s also interesting is the duo’s impact on the boards: when playing together, Missouri got to 38.0% of its own misses, which ranks in the 97th percentile, but also only secured 57.1% of available defensive rebounds, which ranks in the bottom 1%.
That’s not to say the two forwards can’t improve down the line. It’s normal for underclassmen to struggle at this point in their careers. Gates likely didn’t plan to play Butler as much as he has this season — the freshman got thrown into the fire out of necessity. But the early returns haven’t been good.
The most effective units
Honor-East-Bates-Carter-Trent Pierce
Honor-East-Grill-Carter-Shaw
These lineups had the benefit of not going up against MU’s toughest opponents this season. The top group has played a total of two minutes in conference play, while the bottom group hasn’t been available since Grill went down with an injury against Wichita State on Dec. 3.
Still, the units were impressive against the opponents they did face. The first lineup scored 144.0 points per 100 possessions, which ranks in the 97th percentile in the NCAA, and had a net rating of 39.0 — a mark that would’ve been Mizzou’s fourth-best last season. The second lineup was slightly more balanced, ranking in the 83rd percentile offensively and the 79th percentile defensively for a net rating of 32.3.
While both units largely took advantage of easier matchups, it still would’ve been interesting to see how well the groups would’ve held up had Grill and Pierce remained healthy for the full season. Grill, in particular, gave the team an added edge on the defensive end that the Tigers have missed since he’s been out.
The most effective unit in SEC play
Honor-East-Bates-Jesus Carralero Martin-Butler
The team has just four lineup combinations that have played at least nine minutes together and produced a positive net rating against conference opponents. Carralero Martin is included in all of them, along with Honor and East.
This group has done two things at a high level. It does a good job of taking care of the ball, coughing it up on just 5.0% of its possessions, which ranks in the 98th percentile in the country. It’s also surprisingly stingy on defense, with opponents being held to an effective field goal percentage (which takes into account the added value of 3-pointers) of 39.2%, which ranks in the 90th percentile.
The lineup still has its shortcomings on both ends, rarely getting to the free throw line and giving up a high number of offensive rebounds. But in the 24 minutes it's been on the floor across seven games, it’s boasted a net rating of 13.6.
“Zeus” appears to be at his best when filling in as a true power forward, slotting in next to a center who can defend the opponent’s biggest player. He ranks in the top 90% of the nation’s forwards in both block and steal rates. And while he turns the ball over at a sky-high clip, it’s a result of him trying to throw his teammates open — Carralero Martin has the second-highest assist rate on the roster, accounting for 21.7% of the Tigers’ dimes while he’s on the floor, second only to East.
Other takeaways
- The team’s best offensive lineup in conference play is Honor-East-Bates-Carralero Martin-Shaw, with an offensive rating of 128.5. The group has a defensive rating of 137.7, however, for a net rating of -9.2. That lineup also happens to be the Tigers’ best defensive rebounding unit, collecting 81.8% of opponents’ misses.
- Missouri’s best defensive lineup in league play is the same as its most effective: Honor-East-Bates-Carralero Martin-Butler. That’s likely not a coincidence as the team’s second-best defensive lineup of Honor-East-Bates-Carter-Carralero Martin is also its second-most effective.
- The best offensive rebounding lineup in SEC play is Honor-East-Bates-Carter-Mabor Majak. The group pulls down 45.8% of available offensive rebounds, which ranks in the 95th percentile among D1 teams.
- If you cut the 14-minute qualifier down just a tad, Mizzou’s most effective lineup of the season has been Anthony Robinson II-East-Bates-Carter-Butler. The group has a net rating of 105.3 in the six games it’s appeared in.
- The black and gold’s trio of freshmen — Butler, Pierce and Robinson — have played together for 11 minutes this year, getting outscored by 13 points for a net rating of -79.5.
- This was a big one: In 160 minutes played, Missouri is outscoring opponents by 19.2 points per 100 possessions with East and Bates on the court and Honor off the court. In 452 minutes played, the team’s net rating drops to -5.2 with all three on the floor together — a 24-point swing. More than anything, I think that shows the impact of Grill and Tonje’s absences. Without the two of them healthy, Gates simply didn’t have anyone reliable to put on the wing alongside Bates when he wanted to go to a one-point guard look.
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