The end of non-conference play feels like a good time to reflect on what this season has been for Missouri so far. I think everyone expected a bit of a step back this year but no one was sure how big of one it’d be. I wouldn’t call it Luka Doncic or James Harden-sized yet, but it’s definitely clear this team isn’t going to reach the same peaks as last year’s Tigers squad.
Mizzou probably needed to win two of the games that it lost to have more than longshot odds to make the NCAA tournament at this point (you’d feel at least slightly better about where things sit without the Jackson State loss). At 8-5, the team would probably need to go at least 11-7 in the SEC to get back to the Big Dance and, given how things went during its three-game losing streak, that doesn’t seem realistic at the moment.
You’re allowed to be marginally encouraged by what the Tigers showed against Central Arkansas as long as you keep in mind that just about everybody looks that good against the Bears. It’s the second time they’ve cracked 90 points this year — they did so six times last season. Tamar Bates played a nearly perfect game and will need to keep that type of aggressiveness in conference play for Missouri to show improvement. Noah Carter had double-digit points for the first time since November but continued struggling to find his range from beyond the arc.
A popular question that keeps getting asked with the competition getting stiffer is “Will Dennis Gates settle into an eight-man rotation?” And the answer is probably not. Through 13 games, Gates has rolled out 193 unique five-man lineups. In all of Mizzou’s last four games, the team played at least 12 different players, even with Caleb Grill currently sidelined with a wrist injury.
Part of it’s out of necessity due to the inconsistencies of multiple players across the roster. Trent Pierce, for instance, had zero points, two rebounds and two turnovers in 11 minutes against Kansas, had eight points in six minutes at the end of the Seton Hall game, got inserted into the starting lineup against Illinois and had 12 points in 20 minutes, then posted just four points in 10 minutes against Central Arkansas. It’s tough to know what you’ll get from Pierce night-to-night, meaning it’s tough to trust him with a larger share of the minutes.
You can say the same thing about almost everyone on the team aside from Sean East II. When Gates goes seven or eight deep off the bench, it’s usually because he’s just searching for a lineup that’ll click in that given game.
So far this season, 12 different lineups have been on the floor for at least 10 minutes together. Here are a few that stand out.
The most-played unit
-Nick Honor-Sean East-Tamar Bates-Noah Carter-Aidan Shaw
This group shouldn’t be too surprising as it features Missouri’s top five in minutes played. The lineup has been on the floor together for 35 minutes this season across seven different games and has outscored opponents by 11 points for a net rating of +19.2.
What’s interesting about the quintuplet is how bad it’s performed offensively and how good it’s been defensively. The unit has an effective field goal percentage of 43.5% and an offensive rating of 96.1 points per 100 possessions, both marks ranking in the bottom 26th percentile among all NCAA Division I teams. However, the group also forces opponents into a turnover on 30.2% of possessions and holds them to 76.9 points per 100 possessions, both marks ranking in the top 91st percentile.
If Gates were to cut down his rotation at any point, this is a lineup that would likely see a bump in minutes. Any strides the group can make on the offensive end would go a long way as it’ll likely see continued success on defense.
The least effective unit
-Honor-East-Curt Lewis-Carter-Shaw
Replacing Bates with Lewis in the Tiger’s most-played lineup has serious detrimental impacts. The team continues to sputter on offense but also takes a gigantic step down defensively, allowing opponents to score 194.7 points per 100 possessions. It’s a small sample size — of all 12 of the lineups that have been on the court for at least 10 minutes, this is the one that’s been played the least. Still, in the 10 minutes across four different outings it’s been on the court together, the group has been outscored by 14 points, a net rating of -80.2.
On the whole, Lewis has made a positive impact in the limited opportunities he’s seen this year — Mizzou’s net rating has gone up by 2.6 points when he’s been on the court. But for whatever reason, whether it be a high level of opponent or just an ill fit with the other four players in the lineup, Lewis hasn’t had the same chemistry with the group that Bates has.
Just two of the other 11 units have been outscored thus far, and for completely opposite reasons. The grouping of Honor-East-Caleb Grill-Carter-Jordan Butler has been solid on defense, but has hardly mustered any points, leading to a net rating of -27.8. And the lineup of Honor-East-Grill-John Tonje-Carter has been efficient on offense, but struggles to defend due to its lack of size, resulting in a net rating of -25.8.
The most effective unit
-Honor-East-Grill-Carter-Connor Vanover
This group brings a strong blend of floor spacing, positional size and experience. Offensively, all five are capable, in theory, of knocking down shots from beyond the arc, drawing defenders away from the basket and opening up the paint (though, that hasn’t always been the case in reality). It’s been the best among all lineups at drawing fouls, posting a free throw rate of 86.7%. It’s helped the unit become the team’s most explosive on offense, scoring 167.8 points per 100 possessions.
Defensively, having a 7-foot-5 big man protecting the rim in Vanover makes a big difference. Opponents have an effective field goal percentage of just 14.7%, one of the best marks in the nation. The lineup is allowing just 54.3 points per 100 possessions, which ranks in the 99th percentile.
The group isn’t without its warts — it hasn’t rebounded particularly well, it doesn’t create a large number of turnovers and it sends opposing teams to the free throw line at high rate as well. But in the 11 minutes across three games it’s been on the court, it’s outscored opponents by 23 points for a net rating of +113.5.
The Tigers will have to wait for Grill to be healthy to return to the lineup. Without him, the team’s other top units include Honor-East-Lewis-Shaw-Vanover, with a net rating of +97.4 and Missouri’s best offensive rebounding rate, and Honor-East-Bates-Carter-Pierce, Gates’ most recent starting five which has produced a net rating of +32.5.
Other takeaways
-East is featured in all of the 12 most-played lineups. He’s followed by Honor and Carter, who are each included in 11.
-The team’s freshmen, Pierce, Butler and Anthony Robinson II, are each included in at least one of the dozen lineups, but none of them together.
-Mizzou’s least effective lineup is also the one among the 12 that turns the ball over the least — something to consider when Gates talks about his players trying to be “too perfect” at times.
-If you lowered the 10-minute qualifier just a bit, MU’s top lineup would be Robinson-East-Bates-Carter-Butler, which has outscored opponents by 23 points in nine minutes across three games for a net rating of +166.4.
Mizzou probably needed to win two of the games that it lost to have more than longshot odds to make the NCAA tournament at this point (you’d feel at least slightly better about where things sit without the Jackson State loss). At 8-5, the team would probably need to go at least 11-7 in the SEC to get back to the Big Dance and, given how things went during its three-game losing streak, that doesn’t seem realistic at the moment.
You’re allowed to be marginally encouraged by what the Tigers showed against Central Arkansas as long as you keep in mind that just about everybody looks that good against the Bears. It’s the second time they’ve cracked 90 points this year — they did so six times last season. Tamar Bates played a nearly perfect game and will need to keep that type of aggressiveness in conference play for Missouri to show improvement. Noah Carter had double-digit points for the first time since November but continued struggling to find his range from beyond the arc.
A popular question that keeps getting asked with the competition getting stiffer is “Will Dennis Gates settle into an eight-man rotation?” And the answer is probably not. Through 13 games, Gates has rolled out 193 unique five-man lineups. In all of Mizzou’s last four games, the team played at least 12 different players, even with Caleb Grill currently sidelined with a wrist injury.
Part of it’s out of necessity due to the inconsistencies of multiple players across the roster. Trent Pierce, for instance, had zero points, two rebounds and two turnovers in 11 minutes against Kansas, had eight points in six minutes at the end of the Seton Hall game, got inserted into the starting lineup against Illinois and had 12 points in 20 minutes, then posted just four points in 10 minutes against Central Arkansas. It’s tough to know what you’ll get from Pierce night-to-night, meaning it’s tough to trust him with a larger share of the minutes.
You can say the same thing about almost everyone on the team aside from Sean East II. When Gates goes seven or eight deep off the bench, it’s usually because he’s just searching for a lineup that’ll click in that given game.
So far this season, 12 different lineups have been on the floor for at least 10 minutes together. Here are a few that stand out.
The most-played unit
-Nick Honor-Sean East-Tamar Bates-Noah Carter-Aidan Shaw
This group shouldn’t be too surprising as it features Missouri’s top five in minutes played. The lineup has been on the floor together for 35 minutes this season across seven different games and has outscored opponents by 11 points for a net rating of +19.2.
What’s interesting about the quintuplet is how bad it’s performed offensively and how good it’s been defensively. The unit has an effective field goal percentage of 43.5% and an offensive rating of 96.1 points per 100 possessions, both marks ranking in the bottom 26th percentile among all NCAA Division I teams. However, the group also forces opponents into a turnover on 30.2% of possessions and holds them to 76.9 points per 100 possessions, both marks ranking in the top 91st percentile.
If Gates were to cut down his rotation at any point, this is a lineup that would likely see a bump in minutes. Any strides the group can make on the offensive end would go a long way as it’ll likely see continued success on defense.
The least effective unit
-Honor-East-Curt Lewis-Carter-Shaw
Replacing Bates with Lewis in the Tiger’s most-played lineup has serious detrimental impacts. The team continues to sputter on offense but also takes a gigantic step down defensively, allowing opponents to score 194.7 points per 100 possessions. It’s a small sample size — of all 12 of the lineups that have been on the court for at least 10 minutes, this is the one that’s been played the least. Still, in the 10 minutes across four different outings it’s been on the court together, the group has been outscored by 14 points, a net rating of -80.2.
On the whole, Lewis has made a positive impact in the limited opportunities he’s seen this year — Mizzou’s net rating has gone up by 2.6 points when he’s been on the court. But for whatever reason, whether it be a high level of opponent or just an ill fit with the other four players in the lineup, Lewis hasn’t had the same chemistry with the group that Bates has.
Just two of the other 11 units have been outscored thus far, and for completely opposite reasons. The grouping of Honor-East-Caleb Grill-Carter-Jordan Butler has been solid on defense, but has hardly mustered any points, leading to a net rating of -27.8. And the lineup of Honor-East-Grill-John Tonje-Carter has been efficient on offense, but struggles to defend due to its lack of size, resulting in a net rating of -25.8.
The most effective unit
-Honor-East-Grill-Carter-Connor Vanover
This group brings a strong blend of floor spacing, positional size and experience. Offensively, all five are capable, in theory, of knocking down shots from beyond the arc, drawing defenders away from the basket and opening up the paint (though, that hasn’t always been the case in reality). It’s been the best among all lineups at drawing fouls, posting a free throw rate of 86.7%. It’s helped the unit become the team’s most explosive on offense, scoring 167.8 points per 100 possessions.
Defensively, having a 7-foot-5 big man protecting the rim in Vanover makes a big difference. Opponents have an effective field goal percentage of just 14.7%, one of the best marks in the nation. The lineup is allowing just 54.3 points per 100 possessions, which ranks in the 99th percentile.
The group isn’t without its warts — it hasn’t rebounded particularly well, it doesn’t create a large number of turnovers and it sends opposing teams to the free throw line at high rate as well. But in the 11 minutes across three games it’s been on the court, it’s outscored opponents by 23 points for a net rating of +113.5.
The Tigers will have to wait for Grill to be healthy to return to the lineup. Without him, the team’s other top units include Honor-East-Lewis-Shaw-Vanover, with a net rating of +97.4 and Missouri’s best offensive rebounding rate, and Honor-East-Bates-Carter-Pierce, Gates’ most recent starting five which has produced a net rating of +32.5.
Other takeaways
-East is featured in all of the 12 most-played lineups. He’s followed by Honor and Carter, who are each included in 11.
-The team’s freshmen, Pierce, Butler and Anthony Robinson II, are each included in at least one of the dozen lineups, but none of them together.
-Mizzou’s least effective lineup is also the one among the 12 that turns the ball over the least — something to consider when Gates talks about his players trying to be “too perfect” at times.
-If you lowered the 10-minute qualifier just a bit, MU’s top lineup would be Robinson-East-Bates-Carter-Butler, which has outscored opponents by 23 points in nine minutes across three games for a net rating of +166.4.
