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5 Thoughts for Monday - Pres Day edition

ABaumli

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Dec 3, 2005
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First off, I never understood why we didn't' get Pres Day off in college. However, I do understand that no one celebrates anything for President's Day.

1. Govt Shutdown Over, POTUS Trump declares national emergency. Here in lies my problem with our government formation in general. First off, the Border Patrol is actually a legislative created agency, the Customs and Border Patrol Act. Now under law before CBPA, I would think that border protection would fall to the executive branch. Even after the CBPA was created, it was created by legislative branch, but managed by appointments through the executive. Congress maintains control through its control of the purse. Normally with agencies, congress just appropriates a certain amount of money for the agency. See, the IRS gets a certain amount of money from Congress. Congress does not say, here is $5B, $1M of that is for new computers. All the money is budgeted by IRS, reported by IRS and requested by IRS, but congress mostly just signs off on a certain amount of money. During Obama years, the GOP gutted funding to IRS in wake of the auditing of conservative groups selectively scandal. Back to CBP, in this case, Congress specifically allocated what funds were for. Congress wouldn't just give CBP $20B and say, go spend it where you think it is needed. Why did Congress do that? Because Dems wanted to make sure that there was no wall money. Why did Trump want to allocate money, because he wanted the wall. This all goes to campaign trail where Trump bragged about getting a wall and getting mexico to pay for it. You had to be an idiot if you think Mexico would pay for the wall. (I do think Trump should make a deal with Mexican Prez, hey we will give you $25B for AID for refugee problem, but you have to spend $20B of that building a wall on the border between US and Mexico. That would really be the makings of the Art of the Deal.). Anyways, here we are with this stalemate. So Trump does really what was best for everyone and signs govt funding. He gets $1.5B for a wall. Then he goes and declares national emergency and grabs $8B for more wall building. Now I hate govt over reach and this is kind of an abuse of power in my opinion. It's not a national emergency. I am glad we are doing it this way and MY HOPE is that courts tell Trump he cannot do that. Please baby jesus rule that way. I think the Scotus would go 5-4 against Trump here (Roberts swings), but I could see Gorsuch and Kavanaugh joining the libs on this one as well. (side note: I think Justice Roberts will be the greatest SCOTUS Justice of the 21st century.) If that happens, then we have to go back through proper channels, which is fine with me. Keep in mind here 2 things: 1. Dems could have just given money to CPB and let them decide allocation (but didn't because they don't wan the wall and CBP is appointments by Trump, which is the whole damn problem with this agency crap). 2. The Executive seems to have the power of protecting the borders and using emergency declaration to protect borders is within that power. I could see judicial branch hitting home on #2 to if they allow Trump's declaration to stand.

2. Jussie Smollet ruins everything. First off, the guy didn't just make this story up, he orchestrated and paid people to make the story. I hope he goes to jail for at least some time. His actions here are SO damaging to progress to victims of hate crimes. It also tells you that maybe we need to do a little soul searching on these issues, because it used to be the prevailing thought that we should trust victims because they go through hell to come out and tell the truth of what happened to them. BUT now we have someone actively creating a story to make themselves a victim so that they can improve their career and their financial situation. I thought this story was BS from the get go, the part of town in Chicago, the timeline, the claimed actions, etc. Now if Smollet was in some rural town in east texas and he was from there (he was known) then I could see it as more possible, but in Chicago in the dead of winter, give me a break. Once again, libs gonna lib and ran with it. Look at me, I stand up for this victim Smollet and rebuke any such activities. I fear for my children that they live in a society like this. What should happen: All the media/politicians/celebs who came out and supported Smollet and ripped on society should say, "I was wrong to jump to conclusions, I made a mistake. I won't make that mistake again. Smollet is accused of fabricating this story, I won't jump to conclusions yet, but if someone does fabricate a story like this, they should face justice, because the harm they do to future victims of such atrocities are far and great. I hope that the police can conduct a thorough investigation and the facts come to light. Once again, I am sorry for my instant reaction, I made a mistake and I won't do that again" No politician ever admits mistakes. It is stupid too, because one thing as Americans, we tend to forgive those who are truly remorseful. Now you can say that I am jumping to conclusions, but in this late hour with everything that has come to light and even the liberal CNN reporting that he made it up, I feel confidant in my conclusion.

3. A china trade deal on the horizon. In an article in CNBC this morning, they indicated that a deal in principle has been reached or very close to it and signatures could be coming next week in US when Xi comes. Now CNBC was very vague, but apparently China will agree to make moves to reduce surplus, but won't agree to intellectual property theft reduction or any other trade moves (dumping steel). The article said that Trump was tired of the trade war and wanted to move on to campaign mode for 2020. The article was more of an opinion piece, so I will wait to see what comes of it. It summarized that China doesn't want to do bilateral deal with US, but wants to make everything go through the WTO. US wants to maintain control and not hand over to WTO. I will be interested to see the details. I expect to post on this more in the future.

4. JP Morgan Chase creates their own crypto currency. Dimon can go eff himself. Jamie Dimon (CEO of JMPC) said that crypto currency was fraud and theft. Then price dropped 20% and JPMC made trades and bought a ton of it. Dimon then goes on to make their own crypto. I admire how good he is a business, but damnit, he is a POS.

5. Amazon and NYC. I get why Amazon doesn't want to go and I get why those who live in Long Island City do not want them. For someone who lives there, Amazon moving there really only helps you if you intend to move and you currently own your place. Maybe the schools get better, but these big companies offer free food on campus, so mom and pop restaurants won't benefit a ton. Price of real-estate will boom, so rents will rise, people will be pushed out, etc. You get better infrastructure, more police presence, less crime, but you won't be able to afford your place any more. I also get why Amazon pulled out, they know that they will have to fight tooth and nail every day against a locale and a local govt that hates them. So why fight it. Do I think this was good for the people that lived where Amazon was going to build? If they are renters, then yes, I think it is good Amazon isn't coming. Do I think it is good for NY and NYC, no, I think Amazon leaving is terrible. Now maybe if Long Island City required as part of the tax breaks that Amazon couldn't have on site dining, etc., that would have been locally beneficial. In the end, I think more companies will shy away from NYC. It won't become Detroit, because it has huge geographic advantages, history, NYSE, it's a melting pot, etc., but the rich are leaving and the elimination of SALT deduction is HUGE. I dislike these heavy tax, but then corporate benefit deal states. Just put every business on an even platform. When do the super rich start trying to pull this stuff. Hey, I am going to build a giant compound that will employ 20 servants and I will hire some assistants and stuff, give me a property tax break for 20 years.

6. POTUS 2020 election update. This is hard to keep up, but updates:
  • Bill Weld (former Mass Gov) announced exploratory committee (notable, he is GOP)
  • Amy Klobuchar Minn Sen announced she is running
Bill Weld is an interesting candidate. First off, Weld was the running mate of Gary Johnson in 2016. Weld is much more likable than Johnson. Is Weld looking at Libertarian run or straight GOP. ON Amy Klobuchar, I am not even sure she makes it to first primary. I don't even know much about her. She doesn't have a brand. It is interesting that some polling came out over the weekend about Trump versus all the top dem candidates in 2020. Trump was trailing in every race, but most were within 4 points. Interestingly, Liz Warren was favored 53-47 v. Trump. I found that surprising. I think Kamala Harris was 52-48. O'Rourke was 53-47 as well. Not shocking, the big time leader was Joe Biden 55-45 over Trump. I think Biden would destroy Trump. On all the other dem candidates right now, I think Trump wins or at least it is VERY close. The polling that I am going to pay attention to are these states:
  • Michigan
  • Wisconsin
  • Pennsylvania
  • Virginia
I didn't think Virginia was in play, but with all the racist and sexist Dems in state office, I think that state is now heavily in play. Additionally, Trump has been very kind to the local defense companies there.

Barring Biden or a significant down turn in the market or some revelation that is brutal, i think Trump wins 2020. The Dems/SJWs have had a rough couple months here.
 
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