NEW STORY KING'S COURT: PREDICTIONS ON THE SEC TOURNAMENT

drewking0222 · Mar 12, 2024

I’ve made the Sisyphus comparison with this Mizzou team a handful of times this season. And it never felt more accurate than it did on Saturday.

For the first time in a long time, the team looked better than its opponent. LSU genuinely struggled to get going in the first half of the regular season finale. Missouri’s defense was solid and the offense was getting propped up by players who rarely help on that end of the floor. That six-point lead wasn’t a fluke. That’s what the black and gold look like at their best.

Their best never lasts, though. And, sure enough, they fell apart in the second half and became the program’s first team to go winless in conference play in more than a century.

MU’s going to roll the rock up the hill one more time on Wednesday in Nashville, Tenn. A win isn’t going to magically right all the wrongs of this year — nothing will, barring a miraculous run in which the Tigers win an SEC championship and wind up going dancing (oddsmakers give Mizzou a 1-in-1,000 chance to pull it off, which seems high).

But a victory would, at least, show that the Tigers didn’t wait to break whatever curse was put on them this year. It would mean the seniors who helped deliver the program its first NCAA tournament win in 13 years finally figured it out after months of searching for solutions.

There is quite literally nothing left to lose this season except one more game. Whether it all comes to an end on Wednesday or sometime after that, the good news for Mizzou is that, unlike Sisyphus, it’s not doomed for eternity. Missouri can go get a win this March. Or it can schedule a matchup with School for the Left-Handed Typewriter Technicians in the 2024-25 season opener in November to put an immediate end to the losing streak.

Either way, the Tigers will get over the hump again, someday.

Anywell, I’m dropping this column a couple of days early because I’ll be in Nashville all week. Here are my predictions for the SEC tournament:

First Round, Wednesday, March 13

No. 13 Vanderbilt vs. No. 12 Arkansas, 6 p.m.

This is a surprisingly tough call. The Razorbacks went 4-5 in the second half of conference play, with most of its losses coming by just one or two scores. But the Commodores beat Arkansas on the road two weeks ago, 85-82, and also edged out Florida for a Senior Night win on Saturday, 79-78. I think I lean with the Hogs, though — Kentucky is the only team Arkansas has lost twice to this season and I think Eric Musselman makes the adjustments to get the job done in this rematch.

No. 14 Mizzou vs. No. 11 Georgia, 8:30 p.m.

I’m not saying the Tigers have a 0% chance of winning this game. In fact, KenPom gives Missouri a 33% to advance to the next round. On the “State of the Tigers” podcast a few weeks ago, my Magic 8 Ball even said “it is certain” that Mizzou will pick up a victory before the season is over with. But … I’m not gonna be the one who predicts a win for a team that just went 0-18, even going up against an opponent in Georgia that’s won just two of its last 11. Mizzou has several players out and the Bulldogs have only a few and that might be all the difference necessary in this matchup. I think Georgia moves on.

Second Round, Thursday, March 14

No. 9 Mississippi State vs. No. 8 LSU, 12 p.m.

I was pretty unimpressed by LSU in Saturday’s game against Missouri. Outside of that quick stretch in which MU got outscored by 28, LSU was outplayed for most of the evening, as evidenced by the black and gold being able to cut the deficit from 21 to three in the last few minutes of the second half. The Bulldogs have lost four in a row but all of the games have come against teams I perceive to be better than LSU. Plus, MSU blew LSU out in their last meeting, 87-67. I’ve got Mississippi State pulling it out.

No. 12 Arkansas vs. No. 5 South Carolina, 2:30 p.m.

The Gamecocks were the odd team left out of the SEC’s top four and have the disadvantage of playing a day earlier than the teams above them. But if there’s one thing South Carolina knows how to do, it’s beating schools in the bottom half of the conference — the team lost its tie-breaker with the other three teams that went 13-5 in the SEC because it had the lowest collective winning percentage against those specific opponents. I suspect the Gamecocks won’t have too much trouble dispatching the Razorbacks.

No. 10 Ole Miss vs. No. 7 Texas A&M, 6 p.m.

The Rebels played themselves out of NCAA tournament contention with their only two wins in the second half of conference play coming against Missouri. The Aggies, however, are still on the bubble, likely needing a win or two to find their way in — they’ve got an average seed of 11.30 on Bracket Matrix, three spots outside the field of 68. Texas A&M beat the daylight out of Ole Miss on the road in the regular season finale on Wednesday, 86-60. The Rebels seem checked out, so I don’t think it’s a stretch to expect the Aggies to win again.

No. 11 Georgia vs. No. 6 Florida, 8:30 p.m.

I very nearly pulled the trigger on an upset call here. The Gators have a habit of playing everybody close, which helped them earn overtime wins over the likes of Michigan, Georgia and Kentucky but also hurt them in losses to Alabama and Vanderbilt. The Bulldogs lost both of their matchups against Florida by a combined 10 points and I do see a world in which they build up some confidence after beating Mizzou and go on a little bit of a run. But ultimately, I think Florida edges them out in a tight one.

Quarterfinals, Friday, March 15

No. 9 Mississippi State vs. No. 1 Tennessee, 12 p.m.

Brace yourselves, I’m going out on a limb here. MSU beat the Volunteers at home in their first meeting on Jan. 10, 77-72. The Bulldogs have defenders capable of hanging with Tennessee’s outside threats — Santiago Vescovi was held to just two points in their last game. Mississippi State has a big man in Tolu Smith who can power his way past Jonas Aidoo. In the past 10 SEC tournaments, the top four teams have reached the semifinals just twice. And three of the Volunteers’ four conference losses have come against teams who will play on Thursday, which leads me to believe they have a tendency to underestimate their competition. Give me the Bulldogs in a massive upset.

No. 5 South Carolina vs. No. 4 Auburn, 2:30 p.m.

It’s hard for me to get past the 101-61 whooping Auburn gave South Carolina for Valentine’s Day. The Tigers are capable of blowing anyone out. They’re deep, they’re mean, they’re talented. I can see Johni Broome going on a revenge tour after not being named SEC Player of the Year. I don’t think the Gamecocks lose by 40 again, but I don’t see a path for them to come out on top. I’ve got Auburn moving on.

No. 7 Texas A&M vs. No. 2 Kentucky, 6 p.m.

The Wildcats have seriously looked like the best team in the league over the past month. They held Auburn to 59 points, hung 117 on Alabama, dropped another 111 on Arkansas and spoiled Tennessee’s senior night on the road on Saturday, 85-81. They enter the tournament as probably the hottest team in the conference riding a five-game winning streak. The Aggies did beat Kentucky in overtime in their first meeting on Jan. 13, 97-92, but I think the Wildcats have figured some things out since then. I’m picking Kentucky.

No. 6 Florida vs. No. 3 Alabama, 8:30 p.m.

If I’m not confident that the Gators can beat Georgia, I’m definitely not confident that they can beat Bama. The Crimson Tide had a rough go of it to close out the season, going 2-3 in their last five, including a 105-87 road loss to Florida on March 5. But Alabama did beat the Gators in overtime at home earlier in the season on Feb. 21, 98-93, and I think that, on a neutral court, they’ll still be the better team. The Tide have to tighten up on defense, but should take the win here.

Semifinals, Saturday, March 16

No. 9 Mississippi State vs. No. 4 Auburn, 12 p.m.

The Bulldogs did defeat the Tigers at home in their first meeting on Jan. 27, 64-58. But I just don’t see Auburn being held to 33.9% shooting from the field again. In the teams’ second matchup on March 2, the Tigers held the Bulldogs a lower point total while shooting the ball significantly better, resulting in a 78-63 victory. Auburn’s going to be too tough for MSU to stop.

No. 2 Kentucky vs. No. 3 Alabama, 2:30 p.m.

The Wildcats absolutely walloped the Crimson Tide in their last meeting on Feb. 24, 117-95. I mean, really, think about it: When’s the last time you saw any team in college put up that many points, let alone one SEC team doing it to another? It feels like it shouldn’t be possible given that they only play for 40 minutes. I just don’t think Alabama will be able to keep up with Kentucky. I’m giving the nod to the Wildcats.

Finals, Saturday, March 17

No. 4 Auburn vs. No. 2 Kentucky, 12 p.m.

This, to me, would be the most fun title game out of all the possibilities. It’s also a championship matchup that somehow, despite both program’s respective successes, hasn’t happened since 1984 — Kentucky won that game, 51-49. But truly, I think it’s just John Calipari’s year. He’s gone back to his roots coaching high-level freshmen and it’s paid off in all the ways he’d hoped. I’ve got the Wildcats winning over the Tigers and earning their 33rd SEC crown.

drewking0222 · Mar 12, 2024