Ladies and gentlemen, we have a schedule!
I love it when the “TBA” slots get filled in. It felt like it took forever for it to finally come out but in reality, last year’s non-conference slate didn’t come out till Aug. 25 and the SEC slate didn’t come out until Sept. 7, so they’re actually a little early this year. In fact, according to The D1 Docket on Twitter (by far my favorite account when it comes men’s basketball schedules), Mizzou is the 121st team in the country to drop their 2024-25 schedule, meaning there are still two-thirds of the NCAA who have still yet to do so with school about to start — seriously, what have they been doing all summer?
To be fair to all schedule-makers out there, these things are ridiculously difficult to assemble. Staffs start trying to put it together as soon as their season’s over, or earlier in some cases, and most of them still don’t get finished until the start of the next season is two months out. As one coach told me back when I covered Texas State, “Nobody wants to play.” Everyone is trying to get over on each other because everyone wants to win. Coaches put a lot of research into every potential opponent they might add. They have to think about both the short- and long-term ramifications of any kind of series — “We’re better than this team now, but what about the return trip when our star players graduate?” A truckload of money’s involved, which never makes things less complicated.
But that much effort goes into scheduling because it’s that important in building up a program. Dennis Gates has it 1A-1B with recruiting and he is far from the only head coach to think that way.
We now have the third iteration of Missouri’s schedule since he took over and, in many ways, it looks similar to the one from Gates’ first year. There are 20 home games this season. TWENTY. I went on KenPom to check to see who had the easiest non-conference strength of schedule last season. Minnesota took the title. Do you know how many home games the Golden Gophers played last year? TWENTY. It is a notable feat that Memphis is the lone true road game before SEC play starts. That’s what long-term planning gets you and it's a reason I think the second game of Mizzou’s home-and-home with Minnesota got pushed down the line — they’ll play it down the line in a year that the Tigers needs more opponents at home.
A hat tip to @MIZDSP for grabbing Bart Torvik’s preseason ratings of all of the team’s non-conference opponents so that I didn’t have to:
Memphis - 25
Howard - 224
Eastern Washington - 311
Mississippi Valley State - 363
Pacific - 321
Arkansas-Pine Bluff - 360
Lindenwood - 322
Cal - 108
Kansas - 4
LIU - 349
Jacksonville State - 192
Illinois - 20
Alabama State - 271
I understand if fans are a little upset that there aren’t more big games on the slate. But there are two points I want to make here.
1) Coaches do not care what fans think about the schedule. Their job is to win games and they’re going to do what it takes to put themselves in the best position to do that. Now, folks in the athletic department who have to sell tickets might care and might nudge the staff in that direction. But unless the program’s tight on cash, the coaches are usually given the freedom to schedule how they see fit.
2) After last season’s record, can you really blame Mizzou for wanting to take it a little easier this year? If the Tigers merely beat all the blood donors and just one of the high majors, they’ll already have a better record than they did a year ago. (And yes, I’m counting Memphis as a high major because, while the team doesn’t play in a high-major conference, it’s got high-major money being bankrolled by FedEx and annually brings in high-major talent. Three of the six players who transferred out of Memphis went to high-major schools and three of the six players who transferred into Memphis came from high-major schools. Don’t argue with me on this, please.)
The goal of every high-major school every single year is to make the NCAA tournament. That’s especially true for a team not only trying to rebound from a 19-game losing streak, but trying to keep fans (and recruits) excited about the program. Gates generated a lot of goodwill after his first season. That’s gone now. He’s starting from square one again.
And so, I think the path to get to the Big Dance is pretty straightforward. Getting to 20 wins is usually the bar to clear. MU has to beat one or two of its high-major opponents and all of the mid- and low-majors in non-conference. And then it’s gotta be no lower than .500 in the SEC. That’ll at least put it on the bubble.
It doesn’t have to reach the same heights as the 2022-23 team. It just needs a season like TCU had last year. The Horned Frogs had the sixth-easiest non-con slate according to KenPom. The team lost to Clemson and Nevada in neutral site games, beat Georgetown on the road and Arizona State in a semi-home game and defeated all its blood donors. It went 9-9 in the Big 12 to finish the regular season at 20-11, defeated Oklahoma in its first game of the conference tournament, lost to Houston in the next round, was selected to the NCAA tournament as a 9 seed and lost to 8-seed Utah State. If Mizzou can produce that kind of season, I’d call it a success.
But winning that conference tournament game was crucial for TCU because Oklahoma was right there on the bubble with them. The Sooners had the 43rd-weakest non-conference schedule per KenPom, defeated Iowa, USC, Providence and Arkansas and lost to just North Carolina to head into the 2024 calendar year at 12-1. OU went 8-10 in the Big 12 though and its loss to the Horned Frogs in the postseason left it as one of the first four teams out.
That’s the margin for error here and so, because of that, I don’t fault teams for leaning toward a “cupcake” schedule. I don’t think a weak non-conference schedule would keep a team out of the tournament as long as you beat the teams you’re supposed to, especially because the conference schedule is grueling — Minnesota, TCU and Oklahoma were all in the top 80 in overall strength of schedule because they play in some of the toughest leagues in the country. I do think, however, it puts a cap on how high of a seed you can get — unless you dominate, you’re most likely going to end up in the middle on the 7, 8, 9, 10 lines. But again, if the goal is just to make it there, who cares what your seed is?
I recognize I haven’t said a whole lot about the conference schedule to this point. And don’t get me wrong, conference play is important. Ole Miss, for instance, went a flawless 13-0 against its non-conference slate with wins over NC State, Memphis, UCF and Cal. And then it got off to a solid start in the SEC, going 5-3. And then … the Rebels lost eight of their last 10 games in the regular season, both victories coming against Missouri, got bounced by Texas A&M in their first game of the conference tournament and didn’t earn an invite to the Big Dance. A 7-12 conference record is tough to overcome.
But the thing is, we have no idea who’s going to be good or bad. Like, the home-and-homes the Tigers have this year are with Arkansas, Oklahoma and Vanderbilt. And on paper, that seems decently favorable. The Razorbacks got some big names out of the portal, but it’s John Calipari’s first year there and that doesn’t always equal success (see: Arkansas last year). I think Porter Moser is a good coach and that incoming freshman Jeremiah Fears could be really good right away, but the Sooners lost their two leading scorers and their leader in assists. And while Commodores new head coach Mark Byington rebuilt his team’s roster, headlined by Michigan State transfer guard A.J. Hoggard … it’s still Vandy.
But just as Mizzou fans could look at those three and be glad to play them multiple times, fans of those teams are probably looking at the Tigers like “Oh, they went 0-19 last year. I’m glad we get to play them twice.” South Carolina was predicted to finish in last place in last year’s preseason poll and finished in a four-way tie for second place. Arkansas was predicted to finish third and instead ended in a two-way tie for third-worst. Again, nobody knows anything right now.
I will say, though, that a big positive of the SEC schedule for Missouri is that it only has to play Mississippi State and Texas A&M once. I don’t know if those teams will be any good this season, I just know that they’ll be super physical and dominate the glass and make every game a rock fight and that style tends to work well against Mizzou. Gates is 1-6 against those two teams combined and it took the biggest shot of Nick Honor’s career to get the one win against MSU in overtime. The Tigers literally held Texas A&M to 28.8% from the field in a game this year and lost (I just shuddered reminding myself of it).
There are 74 days left till the season tips off. I’ll have a more concrete prediction on Mizzou’s wins and losses closer to the start of the year.
I love it when the “TBA” slots get filled in. It felt like it took forever for it to finally come out but in reality, last year’s non-conference slate didn’t come out till Aug. 25 and the SEC slate didn’t come out until Sept. 7, so they’re actually a little early this year. In fact, according to The D1 Docket on Twitter (by far my favorite account when it comes men’s basketball schedules), Mizzou is the 121st team in the country to drop their 2024-25 schedule, meaning there are still two-thirds of the NCAA who have still yet to do so with school about to start — seriously, what have they been doing all summer?
To be fair to all schedule-makers out there, these things are ridiculously difficult to assemble. Staffs start trying to put it together as soon as their season’s over, or earlier in some cases, and most of them still don’t get finished until the start of the next season is two months out. As one coach told me back when I covered Texas State, “Nobody wants to play.” Everyone is trying to get over on each other because everyone wants to win. Coaches put a lot of research into every potential opponent they might add. They have to think about both the short- and long-term ramifications of any kind of series — “We’re better than this team now, but what about the return trip when our star players graduate?” A truckload of money’s involved, which never makes things less complicated.
But that much effort goes into scheduling because it’s that important in building up a program. Dennis Gates has it 1A-1B with recruiting and he is far from the only head coach to think that way.
We now have the third iteration of Missouri’s schedule since he took over and, in many ways, it looks similar to the one from Gates’ first year. There are 20 home games this season. TWENTY. I went on KenPom to check to see who had the easiest non-conference strength of schedule last season. Minnesota took the title. Do you know how many home games the Golden Gophers played last year? TWENTY. It is a notable feat that Memphis is the lone true road game before SEC play starts. That’s what long-term planning gets you and it's a reason I think the second game of Mizzou’s home-and-home with Minnesota got pushed down the line — they’ll play it down the line in a year that the Tigers needs more opponents at home.
A hat tip to @MIZDSP for grabbing Bart Torvik’s preseason ratings of all of the team’s non-conference opponents so that I didn’t have to:
Memphis - 25
Howard - 224
Eastern Washington - 311
Mississippi Valley State - 363
Pacific - 321
Arkansas-Pine Bluff - 360
Lindenwood - 322
Cal - 108
Kansas - 4
LIU - 349
Jacksonville State - 192
Illinois - 20
Alabama State - 271
I understand if fans are a little upset that there aren’t more big games on the slate. But there are two points I want to make here.
1) Coaches do not care what fans think about the schedule. Their job is to win games and they’re going to do what it takes to put themselves in the best position to do that. Now, folks in the athletic department who have to sell tickets might care and might nudge the staff in that direction. But unless the program’s tight on cash, the coaches are usually given the freedom to schedule how they see fit.
2) After last season’s record, can you really blame Mizzou for wanting to take it a little easier this year? If the Tigers merely beat all the blood donors and just one of the high majors, they’ll already have a better record than they did a year ago. (And yes, I’m counting Memphis as a high major because, while the team doesn’t play in a high-major conference, it’s got high-major money being bankrolled by FedEx and annually brings in high-major talent. Three of the six players who transferred out of Memphis went to high-major schools and three of the six players who transferred into Memphis came from high-major schools. Don’t argue with me on this, please.)
The goal of every high-major school every single year is to make the NCAA tournament. That’s especially true for a team not only trying to rebound from a 19-game losing streak, but trying to keep fans (and recruits) excited about the program. Gates generated a lot of goodwill after his first season. That’s gone now. He’s starting from square one again.
And so, I think the path to get to the Big Dance is pretty straightforward. Getting to 20 wins is usually the bar to clear. MU has to beat one or two of its high-major opponents and all of the mid- and low-majors in non-conference. And then it’s gotta be no lower than .500 in the SEC. That’ll at least put it on the bubble.
It doesn’t have to reach the same heights as the 2022-23 team. It just needs a season like TCU had last year. The Horned Frogs had the sixth-easiest non-con slate according to KenPom. The team lost to Clemson and Nevada in neutral site games, beat Georgetown on the road and Arizona State in a semi-home game and defeated all its blood donors. It went 9-9 in the Big 12 to finish the regular season at 20-11, defeated Oklahoma in its first game of the conference tournament, lost to Houston in the next round, was selected to the NCAA tournament as a 9 seed and lost to 8-seed Utah State. If Mizzou can produce that kind of season, I’d call it a success.
But winning that conference tournament game was crucial for TCU because Oklahoma was right there on the bubble with them. The Sooners had the 43rd-weakest non-conference schedule per KenPom, defeated Iowa, USC, Providence and Arkansas and lost to just North Carolina to head into the 2024 calendar year at 12-1. OU went 8-10 in the Big 12 though and its loss to the Horned Frogs in the postseason left it as one of the first four teams out.
That’s the margin for error here and so, because of that, I don’t fault teams for leaning toward a “cupcake” schedule. I don’t think a weak non-conference schedule would keep a team out of the tournament as long as you beat the teams you’re supposed to, especially because the conference schedule is grueling — Minnesota, TCU and Oklahoma were all in the top 80 in overall strength of schedule because they play in some of the toughest leagues in the country. I do think, however, it puts a cap on how high of a seed you can get — unless you dominate, you’re most likely going to end up in the middle on the 7, 8, 9, 10 lines. But again, if the goal is just to make it there, who cares what your seed is?
I recognize I haven’t said a whole lot about the conference schedule to this point. And don’t get me wrong, conference play is important. Ole Miss, for instance, went a flawless 13-0 against its non-conference slate with wins over NC State, Memphis, UCF and Cal. And then it got off to a solid start in the SEC, going 5-3. And then … the Rebels lost eight of their last 10 games in the regular season, both victories coming against Missouri, got bounced by Texas A&M in their first game of the conference tournament and didn’t earn an invite to the Big Dance. A 7-12 conference record is tough to overcome.
But the thing is, we have no idea who’s going to be good or bad. Like, the home-and-homes the Tigers have this year are with Arkansas, Oklahoma and Vanderbilt. And on paper, that seems decently favorable. The Razorbacks got some big names out of the portal, but it’s John Calipari’s first year there and that doesn’t always equal success (see: Arkansas last year). I think Porter Moser is a good coach and that incoming freshman Jeremiah Fears could be really good right away, but the Sooners lost their two leading scorers and their leader in assists. And while Commodores new head coach Mark Byington rebuilt his team’s roster, headlined by Michigan State transfer guard A.J. Hoggard … it’s still Vandy.
But just as Mizzou fans could look at those three and be glad to play them multiple times, fans of those teams are probably looking at the Tigers like “Oh, they went 0-19 last year. I’m glad we get to play them twice.” South Carolina was predicted to finish in last place in last year’s preseason poll and finished in a four-way tie for second place. Arkansas was predicted to finish third and instead ended in a two-way tie for third-worst. Again, nobody knows anything right now.
I will say, though, that a big positive of the SEC schedule for Missouri is that it only has to play Mississippi State and Texas A&M once. I don’t know if those teams will be any good this season, I just know that they’ll be super physical and dominate the glass and make every game a rock fight and that style tends to work well against Mizzou. Gates is 1-6 against those two teams combined and it took the biggest shot of Nick Honor’s career to get the one win against MSU in overtime. The Tigers literally held Texas A&M to 28.8% from the field in a game this year and lost (I just shuddered reminding myself of it).
There are 74 days left till the season tips off. I’ll have a more concrete prediction on Mizzou’s wins and losses closer to the start of the year.
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