So I took a hiatus, work busy, house renovated, well half of it anyways. New child in March, etc. Stuff has been weird. Some house keeping things:
Stuff I got wrong, I thought for sure if S&P 500 was up that Don would win re-election in January. Well I was wrong. S&P was up, but Don lost. I thought USD would lose value as we printed money. It lost about 7% compared to other global currencies (Yuan, Euro, Sterling, JPY). Congrats to all you savors out there. How did dollar do versus hard assets? It got CRUSHED. Gold, Bitcoin, stocks, Lumber, Corn, etc. All shot up versus the dollar. As someone who will some day inherit farmland, thank you. I did think the market would crash, a double dip, that didn't happen. I vastly underestimated the moratoriums and forebearances delaying payments due. I was wrong. In February, I thought market would crash. I thought Covid would be a big deal, but I think I said less than 1 million people in US would die from it. Not bad on the predictions there.
1. As for Georgia, I think Dems win both seats. Can't wait. You have to give credit to Stacy Abrams ground game. If anyone should write a book about success in political system, Abrams should. Getting the Absentee vote out huge in the Atlanta area was instrumental in these 2 senate seats. GOP lost the POTUS and we know that it is often hard for a team that loses the conf champ game to come back in the bowl game, which is what this Senate Run off essentially is. Dems are motivated, GOP isn't. People can blame Trump, etc., but I don't think that will have anything to do with it. If Abrams infrastructure shows up again, Perdue and Loeffler never had a chance.
2. What does this mean in terms of Stimulus? I honestly have no idea. Are we going to do Green Bonds? The House and Senate will be as close to even as I can remember. SEnate 50/50 and House is like 222 to 211. Any Senator or House Member who has a stranglehold on their election chances has a TON of power. The SALT deduction cap will get removed. That's some help for me. I think States and Pensions get filled. So Boomers win again. Imagine you're a boomer and your the first generation to raise kids that will make less than you and have worse life expectancy. Great job boomers, you effed up the country. Do I think we will add DC and PR as states? Not with current Senate. Joe Manchin has said he will not support nuclear options, etc.
3. Don's call with Georgia SOS. I haven't heard whole thing. It sounded desperate. I follow Sarah Englefield on Twitter, she has been breaking down any data she can get out of elections (requires reporting and making available the rolls). As for issues, she only saw a handful in Nevada, all in Clark County, but it wouldn't flip results. She found that Penn and MIchigan have all sorts of issues. She couldn't break down the Georgia or Arizona info since it wasn't easily available. As I said, when Georgia announced a recount, I thought Trump's last hope was that recount flipping the state. It didn't. I thought he should move on at that point. I am not sure he did anything criminal, he didn't threaten Georgia SOS, he didn't offer money or a position. He does skirt the lines though. Lets be honest, Trump doesn't really have friends in high places. His management style, his attitude, etc. make sure that doesn't happen. So when it started going against him, he was screwed. I said at the beginning that I thought fraud cheating would happen, but I think both sides do it. Trump just sucks at it. Which is fine.
4. Probably the biggest failure on Trump's term? I hope to look back at this more after Biden inauguration, but this story was announced a couple weeks ago and got very little attention even though it was a massive deal. A malware was slipped into a Solar Winds software update and boom, everyone got infected. The US Government is hacked. Microsoft, FireEye, etc. Remember those posters who said our election was on the up and up. I mean it might be, but it's obvious that our security across the board was/is compromised. I know people working on this and they are scratching the surface. They don't know if hackers are still in there, what they copied, what they did, etc. This was a MASSIVE Failure. Even VP would have to admit it. Those F35s we are selling where we could just shut them off if they turned on us? Welp, now someone else might be able to. All fingers point to Russia. What do you want to do? Sanction them? That won't really do much.
5. Chinese Digital Coin. This is interesting. The US is printing money right now. China will do the same and use behavioral economics to control spending, take money, give money, etc. Imagine the Mob gave you a loan, but instead of beating you up, they controlled your bank accounts and you couldn't use cash. It will be interesting to watch if china makes in roads in Africa with this, trying to force countries to trade in Yuan instead of USD. If they do, then US market dominance is done and there is no coming back. Same for Europe. Western Civilization loses control at that point. Africa has the fastest growing population and work force. US doesn't care about production, they just want to print money and hand it out. Great job team. The Chinese Digital Coin does make me nervous.
6. As for 2021, I still think we head for massive unrest. Apparently only those in Israel will take the damn vaccine. US Govt and State Govts having major issues (Shocking, must be Trump's fault). I think market crashes, but maybe not until 2022. When does China make a move on Taiwan? Has to happen at some time, but they will slowly exert influence on policy leaders, etc. I was studying this report over the weekend. Lyn Alden is a genius, but she analyzes everything over a 1 year term horizon because she doesn't like to pay Short Term Cap Gains, so I think she is right on commodity inflation, but near term, I think dollar spikes. This brings me to the appointment of Janet Yellen to Treasury, YUCK.
7. My real issue and what causes me a lot of anger is the bias crap of the media. I don't know if you have heard and a lot of people may hate him, but Dave Portnoy's Barstool fund has been incredible. A little back story, Portnoy went off on social media about more lockdowns. Marcus Lemonis (the Profit from CNBC, CEO of Camping World, worth about $900M) writes Portnoy to do something about it and says if Portnoy will donate $500K then Lemonis will match it. Portnoy (worth about $115M) claps back:
Portnoy asked Lemonis to figure out how to get the money to work, etc. and Lemonis dropped the ball, so Portnoy set up the Barstool FUnd (great job by Erika Nardini, Barstool CEO) and Portnoy put in first $500K and asked "Stoolies" to kick some in, they hoped to raise a milly or two and save some businesses. The Barstool Fund is almost $17M and Portnoy does Facetime calls with businesses telling them they are in and their expenses will be covered for Jan, Feb, and March and longer if it takes. These calls are a great watch if you get a chance. Anyways, Portnoy has received very little if any national attention. CNN is posting about Beyonce (worth $400M not including JayZ money) donating $500K to stop some evictions. Yet no Portnoy who has raised more money and more infrastructure, donated more of his net worth, time, etc. to do something positive gets NOTHING from CNN.
8. Thoughts on Stimulus packages. If these are really to help those negatively affected, then why do we give money to those making $200K and they still have their jobs? Why do we give stim checks to those on Social Security or on Pensions. Why are we giving stim checks to teachers? Is this to help those negatively affected or not? I have seen the complaining about the PPP fraud, etc. But the money was never just about those negatively affected. SO we either make that a criteria or we don't. If you weren't negatively affected, you have your job, your pay is the same or better, etc. maybe you should donate your stim money to a good cause, LIKE the Barstool Fund or to some restaurants, etc.
For the record, I will not be getting a stimulus check.
Stuff I got wrong, I thought for sure if S&P 500 was up that Don would win re-election in January. Well I was wrong. S&P was up, but Don lost. I thought USD would lose value as we printed money. It lost about 7% compared to other global currencies (Yuan, Euro, Sterling, JPY). Congrats to all you savors out there. How did dollar do versus hard assets? It got CRUSHED. Gold, Bitcoin, stocks, Lumber, Corn, etc. All shot up versus the dollar. As someone who will some day inherit farmland, thank you. I did think the market would crash, a double dip, that didn't happen. I vastly underestimated the moratoriums and forebearances delaying payments due. I was wrong. In February, I thought market would crash. I thought Covid would be a big deal, but I think I said less than 1 million people in US would die from it. Not bad on the predictions there.
1. As for Georgia, I think Dems win both seats. Can't wait. You have to give credit to Stacy Abrams ground game. If anyone should write a book about success in political system, Abrams should. Getting the Absentee vote out huge in the Atlanta area was instrumental in these 2 senate seats. GOP lost the POTUS and we know that it is often hard for a team that loses the conf champ game to come back in the bowl game, which is what this Senate Run off essentially is. Dems are motivated, GOP isn't. People can blame Trump, etc., but I don't think that will have anything to do with it. If Abrams infrastructure shows up again, Perdue and Loeffler never had a chance.
2. What does this mean in terms of Stimulus? I honestly have no idea. Are we going to do Green Bonds? The House and Senate will be as close to even as I can remember. SEnate 50/50 and House is like 222 to 211. Any Senator or House Member who has a stranglehold on their election chances has a TON of power. The SALT deduction cap will get removed. That's some help for me. I think States and Pensions get filled. So Boomers win again. Imagine you're a boomer and your the first generation to raise kids that will make less than you and have worse life expectancy. Great job boomers, you effed up the country. Do I think we will add DC and PR as states? Not with current Senate. Joe Manchin has said he will not support nuclear options, etc.
3. Don's call with Georgia SOS. I haven't heard whole thing. It sounded desperate. I follow Sarah Englefield on Twitter, she has been breaking down any data she can get out of elections (requires reporting and making available the rolls). As for issues, she only saw a handful in Nevada, all in Clark County, but it wouldn't flip results. She found that Penn and MIchigan have all sorts of issues. She couldn't break down the Georgia or Arizona info since it wasn't easily available. As I said, when Georgia announced a recount, I thought Trump's last hope was that recount flipping the state. It didn't. I thought he should move on at that point. I am not sure he did anything criminal, he didn't threaten Georgia SOS, he didn't offer money or a position. He does skirt the lines though. Lets be honest, Trump doesn't really have friends in high places. His management style, his attitude, etc. make sure that doesn't happen. So when it started going against him, he was screwed. I said at the beginning that I thought fraud cheating would happen, but I think both sides do it. Trump just sucks at it. Which is fine.
4. Probably the biggest failure on Trump's term? I hope to look back at this more after Biden inauguration, but this story was announced a couple weeks ago and got very little attention even though it was a massive deal. A malware was slipped into a Solar Winds software update and boom, everyone got infected. The US Government is hacked. Microsoft, FireEye, etc. Remember those posters who said our election was on the up and up. I mean it might be, but it's obvious that our security across the board was/is compromised. I know people working on this and they are scratching the surface. They don't know if hackers are still in there, what they copied, what they did, etc. This was a MASSIVE Failure. Even VP would have to admit it. Those F35s we are selling where we could just shut them off if they turned on us? Welp, now someone else might be able to. All fingers point to Russia. What do you want to do? Sanction them? That won't really do much.
5. Chinese Digital Coin. This is interesting. The US is printing money right now. China will do the same and use behavioral economics to control spending, take money, give money, etc. Imagine the Mob gave you a loan, but instead of beating you up, they controlled your bank accounts and you couldn't use cash. It will be interesting to watch if china makes in roads in Africa with this, trying to force countries to trade in Yuan instead of USD. If they do, then US market dominance is done and there is no coming back. Same for Europe. Western Civilization loses control at that point. Africa has the fastest growing population and work force. US doesn't care about production, they just want to print money and hand it out. Great job team. The Chinese Digital Coin does make me nervous.
6. As for 2021, I still think we head for massive unrest. Apparently only those in Israel will take the damn vaccine. US Govt and State Govts having major issues (Shocking, must be Trump's fault). I think market crashes, but maybe not until 2022. When does China make a move on Taiwan? Has to happen at some time, but they will slowly exert influence on policy leaders, etc. I was studying this report over the weekend. Lyn Alden is a genius, but she analyzes everything over a 1 year term horizon because she doesn't like to pay Short Term Cap Gains, so I think she is right on commodity inflation, but near term, I think dollar spikes. This brings me to the appointment of Janet Yellen to Treasury, YUCK.
7. My real issue and what causes me a lot of anger is the bias crap of the media. I don't know if you have heard and a lot of people may hate him, but Dave Portnoy's Barstool fund has been incredible. A little back story, Portnoy went off on social media about more lockdowns. Marcus Lemonis (the Profit from CNBC, CEO of Camping World, worth about $900M) writes Portnoy to do something about it and says if Portnoy will donate $500K then Lemonis will match it. Portnoy (worth about $115M) claps back:
Portnoy asked Lemonis to figure out how to get the money to work, etc. and Lemonis dropped the ball, so Portnoy set up the Barstool FUnd (great job by Erika Nardini, Barstool CEO) and Portnoy put in first $500K and asked "Stoolies" to kick some in, they hoped to raise a milly or two and save some businesses. The Barstool Fund is almost $17M and Portnoy does Facetime calls with businesses telling them they are in and their expenses will be covered for Jan, Feb, and March and longer if it takes. These calls are a great watch if you get a chance. Anyways, Portnoy has received very little if any national attention. CNN is posting about Beyonce (worth $400M not including JayZ money) donating $500K to stop some evictions. Yet no Portnoy who has raised more money and more infrastructure, donated more of his net worth, time, etc. to do something positive gets NOTHING from CNN.
8. Thoughts on Stimulus packages. If these are really to help those negatively affected, then why do we give money to those making $200K and they still have their jobs? Why do we give stim checks to those on Social Security or on Pensions. Why are we giving stim checks to teachers? Is this to help those negatively affected or not? I have seen the complaining about the PPP fraud, etc. But the money was never just about those negatively affected. SO we either make that a criteria or we don't. If you weren't negatively affected, you have your job, your pay is the same or better, etc. maybe you should donate your stim money to a good cause, LIKE the Barstool Fund or to some restaurants, etc.
For the record, I will not be getting a stimulus check.
