Not a fan of Vox (especially Ezra Klein) but this is a great interview of Nate Silver regarding polling and the election. Touches on polling errors, differences between Biden/Bernie, dummymandering, and persuasion vs enthusiasm. That last one is more encouraging for Trump. Here’s the exchange on that piece:
“ I think to say 2016 was about enthusiasm is a misdiagnosis. If you look at David Shor’s work, he’s tried to break this down. Probably 80 percent of the shift toward Trump was Obama to Trump voters, and because of persuasion, not turnout. One basic piece of math behind that is that if I persuade you, Ezra, to switch from Trump to Biden, that’s a net +2 for Biden. You were -1, now you’re a +1. If I turn someone new out for Biden, that’s only a +1. So persuasion matters more.”
Enjoy or ignore...up to you:
Silver interview
“ I think to say 2016 was about enthusiasm is a misdiagnosis. If you look at David Shor’s work, he’s tried to break this down. Probably 80 percent of the shift toward Trump was Obama to Trump voters, and because of persuasion, not turnout. One basic piece of math behind that is that if I persuade you, Ezra, to switch from Trump to Biden, that’s a net +2 for Biden. You were -1, now you’re a +1. If I turn someone new out for Biden, that’s only a +1. So persuasion matters more.”
Enjoy or ignore...up to you:
Silver interview
