Crazy last 4-5 days. Level setting with the facts that I don't believe anyone will dispute:
- Biden has the delegate lead and the momentum
- (Update: Bloomberg is out and endorsed Biden) Bloomberg is 'reevaluating his campaign'
- Sanders was caught off guard by the wave of Biden endorsements
- Sanders campaign came into the contest with a superior fundraising advantage. Outraising Biden by more than 50%.
- Next debate is not until March 15
What is happening now - Biden:
- Biden is recruiting Buttigieg's entire fundraising arm and nearly all are expected to join the Biden campaign
- The large backers that were holding cash at Bloomberg's direction, are now telling him that they will start contributing to Biden and want Bloomberg to exit the race and also financially back Biden (update: Bloomberg is indeed out)
Next primaries with delegates (with 2016 winner):
March 10 - Idaho 20 (Sanders huge, formerly a caucus), Michigan 125 (Sanders barely), Mississippi 36 (Clinton huge), Missouri 68 (Clinton barely), ND caucus 14 (Sanders huge), Washington 89 (Sanders huge, formerly a caucas)
March 17: Zona/Florida/Illinois/Ohio
I am interested to see how the Sanders campaign responds. Sure, they will play up the narrative of Bernie against the establishment. But what else? Can they get Warren to endorse him? Any other big endorsements they can promote? There are another 371 that will be voted on before the next debate. How does Sanders stem the tide? Does he just plan for the next debate and hope to regain momentum for the 577 delegates available on March 17?
Biden has a full week ahead with no obvious opportunities for Sanders to flip the narrative. Biden has 11 days before he has to face Sanders on the debate stage again. We knew the timing of the Biden surge was good for him and bad for Bernie, but the March calendar reinforces that the worst might not be over for Bernie.
- Biden has the delegate lead and the momentum
- (Update: Bloomberg is out and endorsed Biden) Bloomberg is 'reevaluating his campaign'
- Sanders was caught off guard by the wave of Biden endorsements
- Sanders campaign came into the contest with a superior fundraising advantage. Outraising Biden by more than 50%.
- Next debate is not until March 15
What is happening now - Biden:
- Biden is recruiting Buttigieg's entire fundraising arm and nearly all are expected to join the Biden campaign
- The large backers that were holding cash at Bloomberg's direction, are now telling him that they will start contributing to Biden and want Bloomberg to exit the race and also financially back Biden (update: Bloomberg is indeed out)
Next primaries with delegates (with 2016 winner):
March 10 - Idaho 20 (Sanders huge, formerly a caucus), Michigan 125 (Sanders barely), Mississippi 36 (Clinton huge), Missouri 68 (Clinton barely), ND caucus 14 (Sanders huge), Washington 89 (Sanders huge, formerly a caucas)
March 17: Zona/Florida/Illinois/Ohio
I am interested to see how the Sanders campaign responds. Sure, they will play up the narrative of Bernie against the establishment. But what else? Can they get Warren to endorse him? Any other big endorsements they can promote? There are another 371 that will be voted on before the next debate. How does Sanders stem the tide? Does he just plan for the next debate and hope to regain momentum for the 577 delegates available on March 17?
Biden has a full week ahead with no obvious opportunities for Sanders to flip the narrative. Biden has 11 days before he has to face Sanders on the debate stage again. We knew the timing of the Biden surge was good for him and bad for Bernie, but the March calendar reinforces that the worst might not be over for Bernie.
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