No reading or listening recs this week. Got a lot of Mizzou stuff.
1. Let's boil yesterday down to what's really going to happen: Barry Odom is going to get either an extension or a new deal from Missouri. He wants to be here, they want him here, the two sides will work something out. Anybody putting too much more energy into this whole thing than that is wasting energy. There's only one scenario in which Odom is coaching anywhere else next year. If Jim Sterk tells him, "You've got a contract, deal with it" and he has an opportunity to walk, he'll walk. But Sterk isn't going to say that.
2. So what about the timing? The thing to remember here is that all of this has 29 levels of red tape to go through. I can confidently say talks are taking place. Before it can officially be announced, it's got to be approved by the Curators and all that. So that might take a little bit. But it will be done before that. I wouldn't be surprised if it was done this week. I'll say this: I bet, at least privately, that Barry Odom has a new deal with Missouri before Louisville has a football coach. These things usually leak out because somebody from one side or the other will quietly whisper to someone that a deal is done and that will make its way to a reporter and the news will break before it's official. I don't know if that happens this week or not. But I bet it happens by the end of next week.
3. I don't really get the objections of giving him a little bit more money/security. First off, it's not YOUR money (or mine) really. I mean, I guess tangentially some of it is yours if you donate to TSF or buy season tickets, but I don't think most people are going to say "I'm not donating my $200 if you give it to Barry Odom." Second, what Missouri SHOULD be according to revenue, support, salaries, etc, is the 13th best football program in a 14 team league. They're better than that. Nobody is saying you pay Odom like Nick Saban. Just give him a little more security and backing. He's produced results that are actually above what the support and finances say he should. So send the message that he's your guy, everybody's happy and this whole thing is over.
4. There is a Missouri side to this too. And that side is how much money is really there to give him? I'm not sure. Attendance and revenue are down and that's an issue. I don't really believe it's a Barry Odom issue as I've said before (yeah he could be more rah-rah, but I don't think that's going to sell a ton more season tickets and I don't think people are suddenly going to start buying tickets in bulk if you have someone else as the head coach). Winning is going to sell season tickets. All he can control is the product on the field. As Ben Frederickson wrote on Saturday, you hired Odom to be the football coach, not the Chief Marketing Officer. His best way to market is to win games. He did that this year. Maybe not quite as many as you'd like, but certainly more than many thought and enough to have shown tangible progress. From Mizzou's side, I could see an incentive laden type offer. A small bump in pay and staff pay, a couple extra years added on with escalators for certain numbers of wins, bowl bids, top 25 rankings, attendance etc. Hell, I saw that Randy Edsall's deal at Connecticut gave him a 2,000 bonus in every game in which UCONN had a better third down conversion percentage than the opponent (seriously) so there are ways to get him money beyond the rock solid guarantees.
5. Odom will have his last chance to pitch Kelly Bryant today. Arkansas is in on Thursday and he visits Auburn this weekend. My information is that Mississippi State and North Carolina are out. This is mostly between Missouri and Auburn. I won't completely write Arkansas off. But if he goes to Arkansas, he was always going to Arkansas and nobody else ever had a chance because they weren't Chad Morris. Missouri has a lot to sell. Auburn is Auburn. I won't be surprised by either choice. Honestly, I will be surprised if it's Arkansas, but as I said, if it is, there was nothing that was going to change that.
6. Getting Bryant would obviously be big. If they do that, I'll pick Missouri to win ten games next year. On that front, let's take a look at the toughest things for Missouri to replace next season:
1) Drew Lock. Obviously. He's a top 10 QB in the country. Those aren't easy to find.
2) Terez Hall. The guy was all over the place and he's a hell of a leader. Biggest loss on the defensive side of the ball in my opinion.
3) Emanuel Hall. Many would have him higher. But I think a lot of the variance with him off the field had to do with Lock. He just had such a comfort level with Hall that when Hall wasn't there, his play suffered. A new quarterback won't have that. Replacing him isn't easy, but that's why I have him third.
4) Paul Adams. He might not have been quite as good this year as he was last year, but he was still a very reliable right tackle and a leader in the locker room. I think Larry Borom gets first shot to replace him. The staff likes him...but he's never done it.
5) Terry Beckner. Many will be stunned he's this low on the list. There are two reasons. I thought Beckner was hot and cold. He was great sometimes, but he was invisible sometimes. Second, I think Jordan Elliott has a chance to end up as a better player than Beckner by the end of his career.
1. Let's boil yesterday down to what's really going to happen: Barry Odom is going to get either an extension or a new deal from Missouri. He wants to be here, they want him here, the two sides will work something out. Anybody putting too much more energy into this whole thing than that is wasting energy. There's only one scenario in which Odom is coaching anywhere else next year. If Jim Sterk tells him, "You've got a contract, deal with it" and he has an opportunity to walk, he'll walk. But Sterk isn't going to say that.
2. So what about the timing? The thing to remember here is that all of this has 29 levels of red tape to go through. I can confidently say talks are taking place. Before it can officially be announced, it's got to be approved by the Curators and all that. So that might take a little bit. But it will be done before that. I wouldn't be surprised if it was done this week. I'll say this: I bet, at least privately, that Barry Odom has a new deal with Missouri before Louisville has a football coach. These things usually leak out because somebody from one side or the other will quietly whisper to someone that a deal is done and that will make its way to a reporter and the news will break before it's official. I don't know if that happens this week or not. But I bet it happens by the end of next week.
3. I don't really get the objections of giving him a little bit more money/security. First off, it's not YOUR money (or mine) really. I mean, I guess tangentially some of it is yours if you donate to TSF or buy season tickets, but I don't think most people are going to say "I'm not donating my $200 if you give it to Barry Odom." Second, what Missouri SHOULD be according to revenue, support, salaries, etc, is the 13th best football program in a 14 team league. They're better than that. Nobody is saying you pay Odom like Nick Saban. Just give him a little more security and backing. He's produced results that are actually above what the support and finances say he should. So send the message that he's your guy, everybody's happy and this whole thing is over.
4. There is a Missouri side to this too. And that side is how much money is really there to give him? I'm not sure. Attendance and revenue are down and that's an issue. I don't really believe it's a Barry Odom issue as I've said before (yeah he could be more rah-rah, but I don't think that's going to sell a ton more season tickets and I don't think people are suddenly going to start buying tickets in bulk if you have someone else as the head coach). Winning is going to sell season tickets. All he can control is the product on the field. As Ben Frederickson wrote on Saturday, you hired Odom to be the football coach, not the Chief Marketing Officer. His best way to market is to win games. He did that this year. Maybe not quite as many as you'd like, but certainly more than many thought and enough to have shown tangible progress. From Mizzou's side, I could see an incentive laden type offer. A small bump in pay and staff pay, a couple extra years added on with escalators for certain numbers of wins, bowl bids, top 25 rankings, attendance etc. Hell, I saw that Randy Edsall's deal at Connecticut gave him a 2,000 bonus in every game in which UCONN had a better third down conversion percentage than the opponent (seriously) so there are ways to get him money beyond the rock solid guarantees.
5. Odom will have his last chance to pitch Kelly Bryant today. Arkansas is in on Thursday and he visits Auburn this weekend. My information is that Mississippi State and North Carolina are out. This is mostly between Missouri and Auburn. I won't completely write Arkansas off. But if he goes to Arkansas, he was always going to Arkansas and nobody else ever had a chance because they weren't Chad Morris. Missouri has a lot to sell. Auburn is Auburn. I won't be surprised by either choice. Honestly, I will be surprised if it's Arkansas, but as I said, if it is, there was nothing that was going to change that.
6. Getting Bryant would obviously be big. If they do that, I'll pick Missouri to win ten games next year. On that front, let's take a look at the toughest things for Missouri to replace next season:
1) Drew Lock. Obviously. He's a top 10 QB in the country. Those aren't easy to find.
2) Terez Hall. The guy was all over the place and he's a hell of a leader. Biggest loss on the defensive side of the ball in my opinion.
3) Emanuel Hall. Many would have him higher. But I think a lot of the variance with him off the field had to do with Lock. He just had such a comfort level with Hall that when Hall wasn't there, his play suffered. A new quarterback won't have that. Replacing him isn't easy, but that's why I have him third.
4) Paul Adams. He might not have been quite as good this year as he was last year, but he was still a very reliable right tackle and a leader in the locker room. I think Larry Borom gets first shot to replace him. The staff likes him...but he's never done it.
5) Terry Beckner. Many will be stunned he's this low on the list. There are two reasons. I thought Beckner was hot and cold. He was great sometimes, but he was invisible sometimes. Second, I think Jordan Elliott has a chance to end up as a better player than Beckner by the end of his career.
