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So we've reached the point in the year where the thoughts will go a little more global. Obviously we'll cover everything that needs to be covered around Mizzou, but the headliners are in the offseason and we might branch out a little bit more over the next few weeks in this space. Here we go.
1) It's time for my annual rant of frustration with college basketball "fans." The season lasts more than three weeks. Let's do a little thought exercise. Decide which team had a better season (it will not be hard to figure out who the teams are):
Team A: Ranked 10th in the country in the preseason. Finished 22-14, 8-10 in 10th place in its league, lost in the Sweet 16
Team B: Picked 11th in its conference in the preseason. Finished 25-10, 11-7 in 4th place in its league, lost in the 2nd round
Any rational person will say Team B (Missouri) had at least as good and probably a better season than Team A (Arkansas). The gap isn't huge. It's due in part to the expectation for each coming in. But this push for "This team was better than that team because it went further in the tournament" irritates me every single year. I'm not saying the tournament doesn't count. It obviously does. But it can't be the ONLY way we measure success. Missouri had a better season. Arkansas had a better week.
2) This tournament as a whole has been one of the most fun I can remember. Three of the four teams in the Final Four are there for the first time ever. That hasn't happened since 1970. If you add up the seeds of the teams (4,5,5,9) it is 23, which is the second highest ever (2011 was 26 with a 3, a 4, an 8 and an 11). Since seeding began in 1979 it is the first time we've ever had a Final Four without a single team seeded in the top three. There is not a team that was ranked in the preseason top 10 in the Final Four. We got a 16 over a 1, a 15 in the Sweet 16 and team that had never won a tournament game (Florida Atlantic) in the Final Four. Once again, the NCAA Tournament has proven why its the best three weeks in sports.
3) There are two ways a Mizzou fan could look at this tournament and I think both are valid.
First, there are some who are thinking, man, this sure seems like it would have been a good year for Missouri to finally make a run. If it doesn't happen in a year like this, it makes it harder to believe it's ever going to happen. I get it. If you look at the path, Missouri would have had to beat Utah State, Princeton, Creighton and San Diego State to get to a Final Four. There's not a traditional power conference school on that list. In terms of name brand value, Missouri probably wouldn't have ever had an easier path. That does some of those teams a disservice because I don''t think any of those teams is significantly worse than Missouri this year and the weakest one of the group is the one that knocked the Tigers out. But I do understand people who look at this and view it as a little bit of a missed opportunity.
The flip side is this: Anybody can make a Final Four. Truly, if you get in, you've got a shot. Fairleigh Dickinson led Florida Atlantic with 9:19 to play and was tied with 2:22 to play. Would they have won two more games? Almost certainly not, but FAU did. Princeton went toe to toe with Creighton for a half and was within striking distance at the final TV timeout. The tournament isn't about finding the best team. It's about finding the team that plays the best on six days. Even before this year, Texas Tech, Loyola, Auburn, South Carolina and Oklahoma are non-traditional powers who have made a Final Four. Keep giving yourself a chance and eventually it happens.
4) Is this tournament a one off or a sign of things to come? I tend to believe it's the latter. I'm not saying you're going to see complete chaos and out of nowhere Final Four teams every year, but I think the transfer portal (mostly) and NIL (to some degree) are leveling the playing field in college basketball. Miami paid Nijel Pack $400,000 a year. He averaged 20.5 points, 2 rebounds, 2 assists and a steal in wins over Houston and Texas. I saw a tweet that said Miami's roster has a total of $2.2 million in NIL deals. Totally worth it.
The bigger equalizer is the free transfer, though. We're over 800 players currently in the portal. There were more than 1,000 last year. Kansas State made the Elite Eight without a single player who started his college career at Kansas State. Markquis Nowell--the best single player in this tournament so far--came to Manhattan from Arkansas-Little Rock. You can't find a team in the tournament (outside of maybe Princeton) who didn't benefit greatly from getting a player out of the portal. The portal works both ways. High-major teams are using mid-majors as a farm system, plucking the best players and using them to plug holes in the roster. But the little guys are taking players who couldn't crack the rotation of high major teams. FAU's point guard, Brian Greenlee, was a reserve at Minnesota. Vlad Goldin appeared in 10 games and averaged 1.9 points and one rebound for Texas Tech before transferring "down" to FAU. There's a lot of talent out there and teams are finding it. If you get the right mix, you can have a hell of a season anywhere.
5) If this can happen in college basketball, can it happen in college football? It's far less likely. There have always been Cinderellas in college basketball. Two 6 seeds, a 7 and an 8 have won national titles. It's not common, but it happens. Teams outside the top 12 have won five national titles in 43 years of seeding. This time next week, that number will grow to six in 44 years. So 13.6% of the time a team that wouldn't even qualify for the expanded college football playoff has won the national title in hoops.
Upsets are far more common in basketball than football. As a general rule, the more players you put on the field, the less likely you're going to get an upset. There are only five guys at a time on each basketball team. If one or two of them have the day of their lives, anything can happen. In football, it's pretty tough for one single player to make that big a difference. Even a quarterback needs his line to block well, his receivers to catch it and his defense to help. You're counting on 22 dudes and the vast majority of them are going to need to play well to win a game.
I think NIL and the portal can help spread the talent more than it has been. I think expanding the playoff to 12 teams gives more access to a championship. You can't win it if you can't get in. If we just started the basketball tournament at the Final Four, we'd have Kansas, Purdue, Houston and Alabama playing this weekend. None of them made the Elite Eight. I don't expect the 11 seed to win four straight games to win the College Football Playoff very often at all. It may happen once or twice but it's not going to be common. Still, even the very small chance of it happening is better than no chance at all.
So we've reached the point in the year where the thoughts will go a little more global. Obviously we'll cover everything that needs to be covered around Mizzou, but the headliners are in the offseason and we might branch out a little bit more over the next few weeks in this space. Here we go.
1) It's time for my annual rant of frustration with college basketball "fans." The season lasts more than three weeks. Let's do a little thought exercise. Decide which team had a better season (it will not be hard to figure out who the teams are):
Team A: Ranked 10th in the country in the preseason. Finished 22-14, 8-10 in 10th place in its league, lost in the Sweet 16
Team B: Picked 11th in its conference in the preseason. Finished 25-10, 11-7 in 4th place in its league, lost in the 2nd round
Any rational person will say Team B (Missouri) had at least as good and probably a better season than Team A (Arkansas). The gap isn't huge. It's due in part to the expectation for each coming in. But this push for "This team was better than that team because it went further in the tournament" irritates me every single year. I'm not saying the tournament doesn't count. It obviously does. But it can't be the ONLY way we measure success. Missouri had a better season. Arkansas had a better week.
2) This tournament as a whole has been one of the most fun I can remember. Three of the four teams in the Final Four are there for the first time ever. That hasn't happened since 1970. If you add up the seeds of the teams (4,5,5,9) it is 23, which is the second highest ever (2011 was 26 with a 3, a 4, an 8 and an 11). Since seeding began in 1979 it is the first time we've ever had a Final Four without a single team seeded in the top three. There is not a team that was ranked in the preseason top 10 in the Final Four. We got a 16 over a 1, a 15 in the Sweet 16 and team that had never won a tournament game (Florida Atlantic) in the Final Four. Once again, the NCAA Tournament has proven why its the best three weeks in sports.
3) There are two ways a Mizzou fan could look at this tournament and I think both are valid.
First, there are some who are thinking, man, this sure seems like it would have been a good year for Missouri to finally make a run. If it doesn't happen in a year like this, it makes it harder to believe it's ever going to happen. I get it. If you look at the path, Missouri would have had to beat Utah State, Princeton, Creighton and San Diego State to get to a Final Four. There's not a traditional power conference school on that list. In terms of name brand value, Missouri probably wouldn't have ever had an easier path. That does some of those teams a disservice because I don''t think any of those teams is significantly worse than Missouri this year and the weakest one of the group is the one that knocked the Tigers out. But I do understand people who look at this and view it as a little bit of a missed opportunity.
The flip side is this: Anybody can make a Final Four. Truly, if you get in, you've got a shot. Fairleigh Dickinson led Florida Atlantic with 9:19 to play and was tied with 2:22 to play. Would they have won two more games? Almost certainly not, but FAU did. Princeton went toe to toe with Creighton for a half and was within striking distance at the final TV timeout. The tournament isn't about finding the best team. It's about finding the team that plays the best on six days. Even before this year, Texas Tech, Loyola, Auburn, South Carolina and Oklahoma are non-traditional powers who have made a Final Four. Keep giving yourself a chance and eventually it happens.
4) Is this tournament a one off or a sign of things to come? I tend to believe it's the latter. I'm not saying you're going to see complete chaos and out of nowhere Final Four teams every year, but I think the transfer portal (mostly) and NIL (to some degree) are leveling the playing field in college basketball. Miami paid Nijel Pack $400,000 a year. He averaged 20.5 points, 2 rebounds, 2 assists and a steal in wins over Houston and Texas. I saw a tweet that said Miami's roster has a total of $2.2 million in NIL deals. Totally worth it.
The bigger equalizer is the free transfer, though. We're over 800 players currently in the portal. There were more than 1,000 last year. Kansas State made the Elite Eight without a single player who started his college career at Kansas State. Markquis Nowell--the best single player in this tournament so far--came to Manhattan from Arkansas-Little Rock. You can't find a team in the tournament (outside of maybe Princeton) who didn't benefit greatly from getting a player out of the portal. The portal works both ways. High-major teams are using mid-majors as a farm system, plucking the best players and using them to plug holes in the roster. But the little guys are taking players who couldn't crack the rotation of high major teams. FAU's point guard, Brian Greenlee, was a reserve at Minnesota. Vlad Goldin appeared in 10 games and averaged 1.9 points and one rebound for Texas Tech before transferring "down" to FAU. There's a lot of talent out there and teams are finding it. If you get the right mix, you can have a hell of a season anywhere.
5) If this can happen in college basketball, can it happen in college football? It's far less likely. There have always been Cinderellas in college basketball. Two 6 seeds, a 7 and an 8 have won national titles. It's not common, but it happens. Teams outside the top 12 have won five national titles in 43 years of seeding. This time next week, that number will grow to six in 44 years. So 13.6% of the time a team that wouldn't even qualify for the expanded college football playoff has won the national title in hoops.
Upsets are far more common in basketball than football. As a general rule, the more players you put on the field, the less likely you're going to get an upset. There are only five guys at a time on each basketball team. If one or two of them have the day of their lives, anything can happen. In football, it's pretty tough for one single player to make that big a difference. Even a quarterback needs his line to block well, his receivers to catch it and his defense to help. You're counting on 22 dudes and the vast majority of them are going to need to play well to win a game.
I think NIL and the portal can help spread the talent more than it has been. I think expanding the playoff to 12 teams gives more access to a championship. You can't win it if you can't get in. If we just started the basketball tournament at the Final Four, we'd have Kansas, Purdue, Houston and Alabama playing this weekend. None of them made the Elite Eight. I don't expect the 11 seed to win four straight games to win the College Football Playoff very often at all. It may happen once or twice but it's not going to be common. Still, even the very small chance of it happening is better than no chance at all.
