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1) Missouri left no doubt on Friday afternoon in Fayetteville. The Tigers saved their best game of the year for last. If we're being honest, the opposition was a willing partner for the Tigers. Missouri isn't 34 points better than Arkansas on most days. But it was on Friday. The running game was dominant, the defense was suffocating, KJ Jefferson got hurt and Arkansas laid down. It all added up to Mizzou's second-largest margin of victory in the series (38-0 in 2018 was bigger) and it honestly could have been far worse than it was had the Tigers played four quarters instead of three. That's not a criticism, just a fact.
The win should have laid to rest any thoughts that Missouri doesn't belong in a New Year's Six bowl with the absolute best of the best in college football. This year's team was potentially two plays from an unbeaten season and playing Alabama on Saturday in Atlanta. But they didn't get there and there's no shame in that. Mizzou is right where it belongs in terms of national rankings and respect. This season was just a half-tick below the absolutely elite in college football (for what it's worth, I think that tier consists of Georgia, Michigan and maybe Oregon, but you do have to throw Washington and Florida State in there for now because nobody's beaten them), but it was better than just about everyone else. Missouri's season is right there with anyone outside of those top five. If Missouri had Ohio State's schedule, I believe the Tigers could have gone 11-1. They can beat Texas on the right day (and might get that chance). I'd put them up against Alabama and take my chances (the only difference in the two seasons is Missouri made a mistake late against LSU and Alabama completed a miracle againsts Auburn).
Where will Mizzou go? We'll find out at 1:30 Sunday afternoon. I laid out as many scenarios as I could here. Since posting that, I've looked at a lot of bowl projections and (other than Andy Staples for reasons I can't comprehend), most people actually seem to have Texas headed to the Fiesta Bowl and Missouri facing Penn State in either the Peach or Cotton Bowl. Whether they're right, I have no idea.
2) Let's talk individual honors for this Missouri team.
I'd vote for Eli Drinkwitz as the SEC Coach of the Year if I had a vote. Again, I will not argue strenuously if Nick Saban wins it because I think you can argue this is Saban's best coaching job. Had Bama not completed 4th and 31 on Saturday, I think Drinkwitz would have locked up the award. Because it happened, I'm not sure. The way Coach of the Year is usually awarded is to give it to the guy whose team was far better than any of us thought it was going to be in August. That's Missouri. Alabama is very good and still has playoff aspirations with one game to go. But the Crimson Tide was picked 4th (nationally) in the preseason poll and is now 7th. Missouri was picked 6th (in the SEC East) and is now 9th. I think Drink wins it.
Cody Schrader is a lock for first-team all-SEC. I think he should be a first-team all-American along with Ollie Gordon from Oklahoma State. I think he will get that honor because he has gotten so much national publicity in the last five weeks.
Javon Foster is a lock for first-team all-SEC I think. I'm not going to pretend I study offensive line play and can tell you he was Missouri's best lineman for sure, but he's the one who had the attention before the season and the line has been very good this year, so the voters will reward Foster for that.
I think Luther Burden will get first-team all-SEC honors, but I'm not sure. Malik Nabers from LSU is a lock. The second spot will come down to Xavier Legette and Burden (unless there are three receivers on the first team, then Burden will get it). Burden had more catches and touchdowns, Legette had more yards and a better average. Burden played for a better team, which means his production was more impactful. I do not think Burden will make first or second-team all-American. I think those spots will go to Marvin Harrison Jr., Nabers, Rome Odunze and either Troy Franklin (Oregon) or Malik Washington (Virginia). You can see the stats here. Burden is probably a third-teamer. And there ain't no shame in that. Had he been healthy all year, I think he'd have made the first-team and I think he'll be a preseason first-teamer next year.
Defensively, I think Darius Robinson (lock), Kris Abrams-Draine (lock) and Ty'Ron Hopper (probable) are first-team all-SEC. I think all three could find themselves on some all-American teams, though maybe not first-team. I think Ennis Rakestraw will draw some consideration as well, but probably is more of a second or third-team guy.
Harrison Mevis should get some looks too.
3) For the next few weeks, everything will turn toward who's coming back and who''s leaving. So let's discuss that.
Here are the players we know have to leave: Cody Schrader, Nate Peat, Javon Foster, Xavier Delgado, Marcellus Johnson, Darius Robinson, Jay Jernigan, Josh Landry, Realus George, Chad Bailey. That's ten players, all of whom are on the two-deep. Only Johnson and Peat didn't play significant roles on this year's team. So it's a lot to replace. But that's college football.
Here are players who have eligibility left who I do not expect to return because they'll turn pro: Ty'Ron Hopper, Kris Abrams-Draine, Harrison Mevis, Ennis Rakestraw. I could be wrong on those four, but I don't think I am. Mevis has openly talked about his career as if it's in its final weeks and the other two heavily considered leaving last year.
We've previously reported that Kristian Williams and Chuck Hicks are expected to take advantage of the COVID year and come back. Neither has officially said anything, but neither went through senior day either.
The following players are the ones we'll watch most closely over the next six weeks to see if they return: Theo Wease, Jaylon Carlies, Joseph Charleston. Wease said on Luther Burden's Instagram live after the game on Friday he was coming back, but his dad clarified on Twitter that he was caught up in the moment and nothing had been decided. Three weeks ago, I'd have leaned toward Wease leaving. Now I'd lean toward him staying. I would think Charleston comes back, but he may just be ready to move on. I'm not sure what Carlies will do. He has NFL measurables, but I'm not sure he's had an NFL career. The feedback from the draft board may be more important for him than any other player.
Obviously there will be other transfers out, but they will likely be almost exclusively players who weren't contributors to this year's team.
4) The transfer portal opens next Monday, but we're likely to start seeing some announcements coming this week on social media that players intend to transfer. I won't rule out the idea that you could see a player who surprises you enter. I don't have anyone in mind, but it happens everywhere so I'm not going to guarantee that we aren't caught off guard by a contributor leaving. I'm not going to start kicking kids out, but if you just look at the depth chart and where players are coming back, you can probably figure out some other guys who could look for a place they're more likely to see the field.
We're more interested in talking about what Missouri will add in the portal. I think they take a running back. They have two or three high school running backs visiting in December so they may not take two transfers, but I wouldn't completely rule it out. I think you're looking for an offensive tackle to replace Foster. I think you want one or two defensive linemen (an edge and a tackle). A linebacker wouldn't be a surprise, but I'm not sure it's a necessity. And then I think you get a cornerback. That's five or six. I think a kicker and a punter are both possible, but not a certainty. And then you might have a spot or two for a best player available where you get interest from someone that you just can't turn down. All told, that's eight to ten transfers in.
With the ten players we know are departing, that puts Mizzou at 68 guys on scholarship. Adding 20 high school/juco signees puts you up to 88. That means Mizzou needs three more players to leave than to transfer in. As we said, we think Mevis, Hopper and KAD are out so there's three. Missouri has room basically to take a transfer for every transfer it loses and remain at or under the limit of 85 scholarships.
We'll be keeping an eye out for any transfer news that hits in the next couple of weeks.
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