I originally wrote this for my column tomorrow because,
as Gabe put it, “predicting the playoff and things like that in September is a waste of time.” But it ended up being way too long, so I'm just gonna post it here instead.
I am no longer a football reporter, so I 100% should not be considered an authority on these kinds of things. I am nowhere near as in the know as the vast majority of folks who put together these kinds of lists. Heck, I got eliminated from the PowerMizzou survivor pool IN THE FIRST WEEK for picking LSU -6.5 (and I will never forgive Brian Kelly for it). I am still a fan of the sport though, so with all that being said, here’s how I think the field of 12 shakes out:
1. Georgia - I don’t think the Bulldogs are the same unstoppable force they have been in the last few years. I’m not the biggest believer in Carson Beck. But that defense is something else and they’ve proven before that it just takes a guy like Stetson Bennett to get the job done on offense.
2. Ohio State - This pick’s mostly to appease my father. I think the Buckeyes will go as far as Will Howard takes them, and with the receivers and offensive line they have, I think he can take them pretty far. All of the usual suspects (and a few of the new ones as well) who could be a threat to them looked pretty unimpressive in Week 1.
3. Utah - Cam Rising is BACK. The Utes have become my go-to playbook on College Football 25 (though, unfortunately, that didn’t help in any way playing against
@JHamilton23). Kyle Whittingham’s a good coach and Utah’s usually a pretty balanced team. I think they come out on top in the Big 12.
4. Miami - Cam Ward has The Look. I was relatively early on his bandwagon — he shredded Texas State for 376 yards and four touchdowns in 2021 when I covered the Bobcats, leading Incarnate Word to a 42-35 upset win. You could tell back then he was really, really good. From what I remember, his high school team barely let him throw, so he went way under-recruited. The Hurricanes are the best team he’s played for and with Florida State looking the way it does, I think they should be considered the favorite in the ACC.
5. Texas - The Longhorns have a relatively easy schedule, TWO good QBs, and a defense that looked really sharp against Colorado State. The running back room is terribly banged up — Jayden Blue’s going to have to carry the ball a ton — and Quinn Ewers seemed like he was lacking chemistry with his receivers. But I think that’ll get better with time and Texas will be a heavyweight contending for the title.
6. Missouri - I know better than to sleep on the Tigers this year. Luther Burden might honestly be my favorite player in the country right now and I cannot wait to draft him on all my fantasy teams next year. The two biggest knocks against Mizzou I read about during the offseason were that it had an easy schedule and needed to rejigger the defense. And then two of its next three opponents pulled off some big-time wins and its defense pitched a shutout. I think the black and gold will be good.
7. Notre Dame - I wasn’t overly impressed by the Fighting Irish in their win over Texas A&M, but I also don’t see many teams on their schedule who can beat them. Riley Leonard didn’t stand out against the Aggies, but he was going against his former coach — Jared Goff doesn’t play that well against Sean McVay either, ya know? I think 10-2 is well within ND’s grasp.
8. Penn State - James Franklin has led his team to double-digit wins five times in the last eight years. I think the machine keeps humming this year. With the way Oregon and Michigan looked in the first week, the Nittany Lions are going to be contenders for the Big Ten title.
9. Alabama - I’m probably too low on the Crimson Tide but man, versus Georgia, at Tennessee, versus Mizzou, at LSU and at Oklahoma — that’s a gauntlet they’ve gotta go through. I like Kalen DeBoer and I like that he hung onto Jalen Milroe. But they’re at risk of getting clipped a few times.
10. Oregon - I’m not out on the Ducks yet but I don’t think that performance against Idaho bodes well. There are a bunch of new pieces that need to come together. I’m conflicted about Dan Lanning — on the one hand, I think he’s a good coach for the most part. On the other hand, I thought he made some terrible decisions and got outcoached by DeBoer in both of his games against Washington last year. He’s beatable.
11. Ole Miss - The Rebels are going to be explosive on offense and the defense got a ton of interceptions last year. My biggest issue with Ole Miss is the team just never seems to win the big games and there are a few of them on the schedule. Maybe this is the year Lane Kiffin gets them over the hump, but I’ll believe it when I see it.
12. Memphis - The Group of 5 pick is just going to come down to which team can be 12-0 or 11-1. And I think the Tigers have the best shot at doing that, especially given that their only Power 5 matchup comes against Florida State next week. The Seminoles might be broken.
