Welcome to Four Down Territory where I’ll give you three thoughts on Missouri football or college football in general. Then, the last thought will be whatever I want it to be.
1. What to expect from this week's game.
Well, considering
Eli Drinkwitz and Co. don't know what to expect from Murray State then it's anyone's guess as to what the Racers will do on Thursday night. Over 60 new players join the team with a brand new coaching staff.
However, even though Missouri is going into this game blind, it should fully dominate Murray State. The element of surprise is a thing but the problem is in a football game the element of surprise usually only works for the first possession or so. Unless you're the 2008 Miami Dolphins and you're introducing the Wildcat formation to the New England Patriots. That's a surprise that lasts all game.
The Racers will be able to plan a surprise for all three phases of the game, but again that won't last long, and if the surprises don't result in touchdowns and takeaways it'll be an even longer day for Murray State.
I expect the Tigers to take a drive on offense and defense to see what Murray State wants to do and then have a good idea of what the Racers want to do for a large part of the game. Maybe they still hold a couple of trick plays back for later in the game but it shouldn't take Mizzou too long to figure out what the Racers want to do.
Typically, when an SEC team faces an FCS team the latter is overmatched schematically and physically. For at least a quarter or so, Mizzou will unquestionably have just the athleticism advantage. (It probably still has an advantage schematically just not an unquestionable one.) By the second quarter, and definitely by the second half, Mizzou will have both advantages.
As far as what to expect on the field, this should be a game where the backups can get some run. I'm interested in seeing what camp standouts like
Joshua Manning, Daniel Blood, Marquis Gracial, Nic DeLoach (who will likely see a good amount of action with the first team regardless of whether he starts or not),
Trajen Greco, Caleb Flagg and more can do.
I don't know if Mizzou can cover the -47.5 spread but then again, I don't like any team with that spread. I don't care who it's against really. But Missouri should be sitting most of its starters by the fourth quarter.
2. What game can be like the Middle Tennessee State game from last year?
Well, if you were on this site last year you know how much I loved every bit of that MTSU game because I was all types of crazy for choosing Mizzou to win the game 20-17. Good times (these are jokes).
It was a classic case of don't judge a book by its cover. MTSU was not a big Group of 5 team but it was coming off an 8-5 season in 2022 with some decent talent and a penchant for playing aggressive and forcing turnovers. Combine that with Mizzou clearly holding back some of its playbook, a missed PAT by Harrison Mevis and the Tigers giving up nine points in 50 seconds in the middle of the fourth quarter and you have Mizzou winning 23-19, the third-smallest margin of victory (four points) of the season for the Tigers.
To get into this season, what team on the schedule has the chance to do that this year?
If we're talking about a non-Power 4 team, I don't think that team is on the schedule. The closest team to that would be UMass. The Minutemen are independent, but they went 3-9 last year and 1-11 the year before that. That is almost like Murray State part 2. The Racers don't have a chance as we mentioned in the first point, and Buffalo also went 3-9 last year and has a new head coach.
If you want to get out of the non-conference, Group of 5 or FCS teams, you're looking toward Boston College. The Eagles went 7-6 last year and they've gotten some key additions that the Tigers know or have played against recently.
Bill O'Brien is the new head coach, he can scheme some things up.
The Eagles got wide receiver
Jayden McGowan, who was a part of a very talented wide receiver trio at Vanderbilt. They also got running back
Treshaun Ward, who had 107 scrimmage yards against Mizzou in Week 3 as a member of Kansas State.
But Boston College is still a Power 4 team with talent. So, a close game at Faurot Field wouldn't be the same as what MTSU did. A win at Faurot Field would be considered an upset but it wouldn't be anything that's never happened before because again, Boston College is still a Power 4 team coming off a 7-6 season.
Then, anything can happen in the SEC. Mississippi State, South Carolina and or Arkansas can win on the right day. Missouri should win those games, and you might be able to count those games as wins in your head but there's a world where Mizzou can lose one of those games.
Is there an MTSU game on the schedule this year? I don't see it. Are there middle-of-the-pack to bottom-tier Power 4 teams that can give Mizzou a run for its money?
Absolutely. Aren't we glad the offseason is over?
3. What's a penalty you'd like to see changed or added to college football or the NFL?
I was listening to the 3 & Out with
John Middlekauff podcast the other day and Middlekauff was reading a mailbag question and the person asked why a defensive holding call in the NFL is five yards (it's 10 yards in college football) and an automatic first down for the offense when an offensive holding call is just a 10-yard loss and you replay the down.
That got me thinking and I agree.
For example, it's third and 19 and the quarterback checks it down to the flat for a gain of three yards but then there's a defensive holding four yards from the line of scrimmage and now it's 10 free yards and a new set of downs. I don't mind the yardage, but I think a fresh set of downs is intense.
So, turn that third and 19 to a third and nine and I'm cool but a new set of downs is excessive.
The podcast also brought up the defensive pass interference rule in college football.
It's a 15-yard penalty and an automatic first down in college but a spot foul with a fresh set of downs in the pros. If I were a defensive back in college, I'd be committing a lot more defensive pass interference as opposed to letting someone cook me for a touchdown. I'm surprised we don't see it more.
I'd like the NFL to adopt the college interpretation of the rule. Instead of having a spot foul and an automatic first down.
What's a penalty you'd like changed in college football or the NFL?
4. "You better audible out of that screen pass."
If you've been reading this column, you'd know my games of choice are Madden and now EA College Football 25. I love the strategy of the games. Well, on Saturday I had
@drewking0222 and
Eli Hoff of the St. Louis Dispatch come over to play the game and it went as well as I could've hoped for. Two massacres.
Eli was the first victim. We picked our teams randomly. He got Clemson and I had to work with West Virginia.
Eli and Drew admitted pregame that they aren't that good at the game and so I did take that into account. I wasn't going to take it any easier on them than I would anyone else but I registered what they said. Anyway, Eli made me laugh by using coach suggestions for the duration of the game. It was fun telling them how I was picking Eli's defense apart by doing certain hot routes and audibles.
I was up 41-0 and I wanted a shutout but then I gave up a touchdown as time expired so I only won 41-6. The game felt bad for him so they let him get a contested catch for that score.
When Drew picked up the sticks, the team he randomly got was Colorado while I got Mizzou oddly enough. Colorado feels like a team with good players and no chemistry. The team is rated much higher than their real-life counterpart should be, but that's beside the point.
Before the game, Eli playfully set the over/under at +35 for Drew. Every time Drew would do something or string some good plays together, he and Eli would gain hope before I took it away. He actually got on the board a few times.
For most of the game, I was up 14 to 21 points. Then, he and Eli would start thinking they could win this imaginary spread and I had to end all of that.
The funniest thing was on the final play of the game, Drew had the ball inside his 10-yard line and because we were on the same TV I could see his coach's suggestions. I didn't see him pick "HB Screen" as I was sitting in a chair in front of him while he was on the couch behind me, but I just figured he was going to pick that play. So, when his team got to the line I said, 'You better audible out of that screen pass.'
He did try to audible but got a delay of game to end the game, and then he confirmed that he audibled because I told him to. It was pretty funny. I won that game 69-21, and I promise I wasn't trying to win with that number. I would've put up 96 points had I not wanted to keep stat padding
Speedy Johnson's stats but that led to four interceptions.
