You can read my
ten thoughts on the loss to Tennessee here as well as some
reaction to the hoops win over Lindenwood here
1) Welcome to the worst week of the football season. The one thing I really like about the SEC is that it usually gives you meaningful games early in the season. But the thing I hate is that the tradeoff for those meaningful games early is this week in November where every team schedules a glorified bye week. And make no mistake, that's what this is. There are worlds where Missouri can be in a close game or lose to New Mexico State. But the Aggies are 4-5 and their best win is probably New Mexico (which has won two games). Missouri is a four touchdown favorite. If there's any drama in this one, it's disaster.
2) There is only one thing that is interesting this weekend: Do we see Sam Horn and a lot of the other young guys we've heard about? All of these guys need to play multiple series on Saturday: Horn,
Tavorus Jones, Jalen Marshall, Marquis Gracial, Isaac Thompson, Ja'Marion Wayne. We also need to see extended action for non-freshmen like
Arden Walker, Johnny Walker, Dameon Wilson, etc, etc. I've got little interest in how the older players do this weekend. I want to see the kids. I want to see the players that are going to be the future of this program.
3) By Saturday night, we will likely have arrived at this: 5-6 Missouri will host 5-6 Arkansas the day after Thanksgiving with a .500 season on the line for one and hopes for a 5-7 APR bowl exception for the other. The Tigers should win their tuneup. Arkansas hosts Ole Miss. It's not out of the question the Razorbacks win because weird things happen in college football and they almost beat LSU, which is probably a little better than Ole Miss, last weekend. But the Rebels are a two point favorite and I'm still not sure KJ Jefferson is healthy.
The interesting thing is the winner of that game is actually probably in line to get a decent bowl bid. There are only nine teams that are bowl eligible in the SEC right now. Texas A&M can't get to six wins, Auburn would have to beat Alabama to get there and Vanderbilt would have to beat Florida and Tennessee. So the Mizzou/Arkansas winner is the 10th best team in the SEC. Here's what that means in terms of bowl games:
If the SEC gets two in the playoff (Georgia is almost certain and LSU or Tennessee has a good shot):
Sugar: LSU/Tennessee, whichever isn't in playoff
Citrus: Alabama
Pool of 6 (Texas, Liberty, Vegas, Gator, Music City, ReliaQuest--used to be Outback): Ole Miss, Mississippi State, South Carolina, Florida, Kentucky, Mizzou/Arkansas winner
In this scenario, Ole Miss to the Texas Bowl makes sense. I'd think Florida and South Carolina get the Outback/Gator in some combo, Kentucky goes to the Liberty, leaving Mississippi State and the winner of Mizzou/Arkansas for Vegas and the Music City Bowl. If the SEC doesn't get two in the playoff, it is still relatively likely to have Tennessee in the Orange Bowl as the highest-ranked non-league champ and LSU or Bama in one of the other New Year's Six bowls. So the rest of the picture falls relatively the same. In other words, if the Tigers can beat Arkansas, they're probably not falling to the Mayo Bowl, Birmingham Bowl or Gasparilla Bowl. There just aren't enough teams to fill the SEC spots.
4) The question then really becomes "Does that qualify as progress?" If Missouri loses that Arkansas game and finishes 5-7, I don't really see how it can be sold as progress. Particularly if the Arkansas game isn't a close loss. If they beat Arkansas, you can sell it as progress. Or at least not a step backward. I don't know that I necessarily agree with the argument, but it's one that is defensible because a lot of the losses have been close losses including one against Georgia. It really comes down to a margin of defeat thing in that scenario. In 2021, Missouri lost seven games. Two of them were by one score and four were blowouts. In 2022, if it can win its last two, Missouri will have lost six games (with a bowl game still to go). Four of them would have been by one score and two would have been blowouts. So it's marginally better.
5) We just keep coming back to the same place: Next year has to be the year and the main part of that has to be identifying the quarterback of the present and the future. There's no way at this point that we (media and fans) go into the offseason knowing that guy is on the roster. I really don't see a scenario where it's
Brady Cook. For that to happen, he would have to have an offseason where he improves as much as he did last offseason. It may be Sam Horn. But we won't really have seen anything to tell us it is for sure. It also may be a transfer. We'll see what
Eli Drinkwitz does this offseason. What type of QB he goes after (starter or practice body) and how hard he goes after one is the most interesting part of the offseason. That action will tell us what he thinks of Horn's long term prospects. I honestly don't care who the starting quarterback is next year. But Drinkwitz has to be right about whoever it is. Absolutely has to be.
6) The other major thing about this team and its future is this: How many of the defensive players come back? To me, it's probably not quite as important as the quarterback question, but it's not far behind. I think those that believe next year is the year and that Drink is going to take off and be the coach here for multiple years going forward are basing that on the idea that he's fixed the defense and now he just needs to fix the offense similarly. But what if the defense goes backward next year? Let's look at the personnel:
DJ Coleman has no eligibility left
Tyrone Hopper has no eligibility left
Martez Manuel has said this is his last year
Isaiah McGuire is probably an NFL Draft pick
Ty'Ron Hopper is probably an NFL Draft pick
Darius Robinson is very possibly an NFL Draft pick
Jaylon Carlies might be an NFL Draft pick
Kris Abrams-Draine might be an NFL Draft pick
Chad Bailey has been in college for five years and has battled tons of injuries and may want to move on
Trajan Jeffcoat has been in college for five years, was forced to miss a full season and most of the guys he came in with will be gone
That's ten of the 17 defensive players that get regular snaps. I don't think they'll probably all leave, but I think it's a good bet at least half of them do. So it's not as simple as just keep the defense on track and rebuild the offense. There's going to be a bit of a rebuild on defense as well.
missouri.rivals.com
