1) We'll talk a lot of football this week, but let's start with Mizzou basketball. The week gone by had more positives than negatives, but enough negatives to at least give you some pause before driving this train all the way to the Final Four. Missouri led Arkansas 25-8 and lost in Fayetteville on Wednesday. It wasn't a bad loss by any definition, but it was a frustrating loss simply because Mizzou had been up 17. The Tigers then fell behind Vanderbilt, came back, looked like they were going to win big, let Vandy back in it and hung on for a three-point victory. It was a win that wasn't super impressive, but in the end all that matters is that it was a win. Missouri did what it needed to do this week. 1-1 every week for the rest of the regular season will get Mizzou into the NCAA Tournament. I understand that some have adjusted their goals to be higher than that to focus on seeding. I haven't quite done that yet. I might do it after the next four games, but...
2) The next four games are far from easy. While we were all busy focusing on the five-game stretch from UCF to Arkansas (and rightfully so because I still think it's the most difficult five-game stretch Mizzou has on the schedule), the next five-game stretch is what will determine this team's ceiling. This week brings road games at Texas A&M and Florida. Missouri (39th in KenPom, 32nd in NET) is ranked higher than the Aggies (71, 82) and the Gators (74, 70). The Tigers have had a better start to the season. But these are absolutely not easy games. Home teams are 15-4 in SEC games. Two of the road wins have come from Tennessee, which looks like the best team in the league (unless it's Alabama). Winning on the road is hard. KenPom actually predicts Mizzou to lose both this week. They're both basically coin flip games. Then Missouri comes home for Arkansas and Alabama next week. Missouri will likely be an underdog in both of those games. The goal is to split the next two weeks. A 1-3 record wouldn't kill the NCAA Tournament chances by any means. A 3-1 record or better would indicate to me it's absolutely time to start talking about seeding rather than just getting in the tournament. The only thing Mizzou absolutely has to avoid is a four-game losing streak. And it's certainly not out of the question. I promise I'm not trying to be a wet blanket. I like this team. I think it is a tournament team. But I'll feel a whole lot better about that statement and have a lot better feeling of where the Tigers fit in that discussion in 12 days.
3) The Arkansas and Vandy games revealed some questions Missouri has to answer. The first one is a question every team has to answer: What do you do when your shots aren't falling? That happened to Missouri in Fayetteville. The Tigers were coming off three consecutive games in which they'd shot better than 49% from the field. They shot just 44% at Arkansas. They didn't have quite enough answers when some of the shots they were used to hitting weren't going in. They found some of those answers against Vandy, mainly by way of the free throw line. The two major area of concern are defense and rebounding.
Dennis Gates talked about both of those after the Vandy game and I think his answers are worth posting in their entirety.
Defense: "They did a great job of spacing us out, and I thought they tried to force the whistle. But I'm glad because I told my guys do not foul and it sort of put them in a position where they ended up just not fouling but giving up the lane. So our angles were off and I take responsibility for that because I did not want the free throw game to be equal at all. So I rather that happen than not and we ended up giving up you know probably a season high 44 points in the paint. But you know, it is what it is; it's relative and the outcome is the outcome."
In other words, Missouri gave up some open shots because Gates didn't want to send Vandy to the line 30 times. Vandy made enough of those open shots to make it interesting. It's a risk Gates was willing to take.
Rebounding: "We had 11 rebounds in the first half and the same probably applied in the first half in Fayetteville, but it's not an excuse, it is just a category where what we have to do is be rebounders by committee. I thought Vandy did a great job. Again, we knew that they had size. It wasn't more athleticism. It was more so size. And they played the game not above the rim but below with their size, strength and their ability to plow us out and positioning. We have to be able to be secondary rebounders, we have to have guards come in and help and have four hands versus their two. And if we can do that, we'll be fine. Again, I look at the complete game analytically. Anyone can look at the numbers and say we got out rebounded but ultimately you have to be able to hold that as your only negative. If we had gotten out rebounded and gave up a negative assist to turnover ratio, we would double up the possessions that they have versus what we have. I think that category is transferred to our steals to our turnover rate. So offensive rebounds is just an opportunity to get the ball back. I think we made that up by being able to get the ball back defensively, but also take care of the ball offensively. So those are the analytic things that we're stuck with that I always share with my guys don't get discouraged. But understand by committee we will have to do certain things. Having Kobe Brown out as a primary rebounder, yes that hurts. But also when you have Noah Carter get five defensive rebounds is great. That's awesome. We got to have other guys get five or six rebounds as well."
4) So let's move on to football. Missouri was active in the transfer portal (in both directions) on Sunday. The Tigers added
Eastern Michigan OL Marcellus Johnson. Johnson played left tackle at Eastern Michigan. The Tigers expect Javon Foster back so my best guess is that Johnson or Armand Membou will play right tackle next year with the other one sliding in to right guard. Those two positions were issues for Missouri this season, due to both lack of overall talent and injury. Later in the day, they also added
Florida defensive back Tre'Vez Johnson. This one was more out of the blue as Johnson had visited Missouri and we didn't know about it. He was listed as a cornerback out of high school. He played STAR at Florida, which appears to be more of a slot corner position.
Blake Baker's system uses a safety/linebacker hybrid at the STAR and given his size (5-11, 194), it doesn't seem Johnson is really a candidate for that spot. He's probably more of a guy to compete for the third corner spot this season and hope to slide into a starting role in his final year in 2024 is my guess.
Also on Sunday,
Trajan Jeffcoat entered the transfer portal just five days after tweeting out a picture of himself in a Mizzou uniform with the caption "One More Year." This is just college football now. None of the social media announcements really mean anything. Every single player in the country is a free agent other than players who have already signed a Letter of Intent for this year. Realistically, that even includes transfers who signed in December until next Tuesday. Transfers are signing scholarship agreements, not NLI's, and those bind the school to the player, but not the player to the school until the player attends class. Missouri starts class next Tuesday. So theoretically, even transfers aren't bound to the schools they've committed to or signed with until the first day of class. Not saying I anticipate anything to happen with the guys that Missouri has already announced, just giving you a heads up because in this day and age, you expect the unexpected.
5) The name of the game is this: Get more out of the portal than you put into it. That's it. Everyone is losing players to transfer. Pretty much everyone is losing players who actually played to the portal. We can complain about it. We can think it's ridiculous. We can bitch and moan about tampering and NIL and everything else. But this is the game. You're going to lose some. You have to gain more. Along those lines, former Cardinal Ritter and Arizona State
defensive end Joe Moore was headed to Washington. Until news came out last week he wasn't. We've told you Missouri is involved. He makes a whole lot of sense as Jeffcoat's replacement. That could happen this week. If it does, Moore joins Austin Firestone, Arden Walker and Johnny Walker in the rotation at defensive end for Mizzou. While the Tigers have three incoming freshmen and some interior linemen that could slide outside from time to time, one more edge rusher out of the portal wouldn't be a surprise.
I'd expect at least a couple more additions from the portal this week as well. I think the Tigers are probably still looking at running back and tight end. I think other areas they could still add someone are punter, wide receiver, linebacker and quarterback. The activity will continue. The portal is still open for another week-and-a-half.
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