1) We're trying to fill a playoff here. Anybody want in? It sure as hell didn't look like it this weekend. Four of the top nine teams lost and because of that we might have more teams alive for a playoff spot this week than we did last week. Georgia and Michigan are in. We know that for sure. Regardless of what happens next week those two are in and most likely in as your top two seeds. It will get wild after that.
2) Before we get to what did happen and what that means is going to happen, let's talk about what could be happening. What if the playoff were 12 teams this year? Here's what you'd probably have (based on my guess at Tuesday's rankings):
Byes: Georgia, Michigan, TCU, USC
No. 12 Washington at No. 5 Alabama
No. 11 Kansas State at No. 6 Ohio State
No. 10 Penn State at No. 7 Tennessee
No. 9 Clemson at No. 8 LSU
But that's no fun, right? There's no way any of those bottom eight teams could ever possibly have any chance to win this thing, right? In the immortal words of Ocho Cinco, Child Please.
3) TCU is probably in the playoff. At least it should be. If the Horned Frogs lose next week's Big 12 title game, they'll be 12-1. The only loss will be to Kansas State, which would probably be a top ten team with the win. But the strength of schedule and name brand recognition could definitely hurt them. The Frogs' best win so far, at least according to the rankings, is Texas. They are hurt by the fact that SMU, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Baylor are all worse than they were expected to be. If TCU loses, it will be 12-1 and they could still miss out on the playoff if...
4) USC beats Utah in the PAC-12 title game. The Trojans disposed of Notre Dame, which is a top 20 win (probably). They have also beaten UCLA this year. They will get a rematch with Utah (SC's only loss was 43-42 to the Utes). If they win that, they're in in Lincoln Riley's first year at Southern Cal. SC will be No. 4 this week. Win and they're in. Lose, and hoo boy, that's when things get interesting.
5) What if TCU and/or USC loses? USC probably can't get in with a loss. Let's say TCU drops a close game and USC beats Utah. Here are the choices:
12-1 TCU
12-1 USC
11-1 Ohio State
10-2 Alabama
The Buckeyes and the Tide are done. They're not playing again. If you simply say who wins a game between these two teams, I think Ohio State and Bama are probably the two best. But, again, you have to reward the season at some point, right? If the conference title games didn't exist, TCU and USC are in. Do they get penalized if they lose to a top 12 team while the other two are sitting at home? It's certainly possible. This is by far the most interesting possible scenario next week.
6) LSU and Clemson played their way right out of the playoff. Clemson lost to South Carolina 31-30. The Gamecocks picked up two top five wins in the final two weeks of the regular season and finished 8-4 under Shane Beamer. He should get some consideration for SEC coach of the year. He's in the conversation with Brian Kelly and Josh Heupel. The LSU loss is the one that impacts Missouri. If the Tigers lose to Georgia next weekend (which I'd say is likely), they're going to be 9-4 including a blowout at Texas A&M which hadn't beaten a real team in a month-and-a-half. I think that means the Tigers played themselves out of the New Year's Six bowls. So here's the situation:
Playoff: Georgia
NY6: Bama and Tennessee
Citrus: LSU
Pool of Six (one of these teams isn't in): South Carolina, Ole Miss, Mississippi State, Kentucky, Missouri, Arkansas, Florida
One of those seven is going to end up in Birmingham. It's almost certainly Mizzou, Arkansas or Florida. Those are the three 6-6 teams. Which one is left out? I have no idea.
7) There were some other great games outside the playoff:
Mississippi State beat Ole Miss in the Egg Bowl on Thursday night meaning both teams finished the year 8-4. But the game was a subplot to the soap opera of who is going to pay Lane Kiffin $9 million or more. He's going to coach in the SEC West next year. We just don't yet know for sure if it's in Oxford or at Auburn. It's probably Ole Miss. But it's not definite yet.
Oregon blew a 34-10 lead and lost the Civil War to Oregon State 38-34. They played themselves out of the PAC 12 title game and maybe out of the New Year's Six. The Ducks probably slid to fifth in the PAC-12 postseason pecking order with the collapse.
Florida State beat Florida 45-38 in a really entertaining game that got the Noles to 9-3. I'd say they had the most under the radar pretty good season. FSU is hardly back to where it was 25 years ago, but it's a lot better than it's been.
Tulane held off Cincinnati 27-24 to lock up a NY6 spot as the highest ranked G5 team in the country.
Nebraska hired Matt Rhule, which I think is a pretty good hire for the Huskers.
New Mexico State beat Liberty 49-14 in the most WTF game of the weekend.
8) Let's take a moment to revel in the misery of football in the state of Oklahoma this weekend. The Sooners lost 51-48 to Texas Tech, which means they finished 6-6 on the season and tied with Kansas and West Virginia in the Big 12 standings. It's the most games the Sooners have lost in a season since 1998, which was John Blake's last year. If they lose a bowl game, it will also be their first losing season since then. They're probably not as mad about that as they are about seeing what's gone on at USC this season. The Cowboys, meanwhile, were ranked 8th in the country at 5-0 when they played TCU in mid-October. Since then they've lost 5 of 7, including their last three, to fall to 7-5 and complete irrelevancy. Just for good measure, Tulsa is looking for a new head coach after a 5-7 season.
9) My Heisman ballot if I had to submit it today:
I don't know. I think my top three are Caleb Williams, Bryce Young and Bijan Robinson in some order. But it's as wide open as I can remember. I assume it will be a quarterback and it will probably be Williams. But my mind isn't at all made up.
10) Five games I'll watch next weekend:
Utah vs USC, 7 pm Friday, Fox: PAC 12 title on the line, playoff spot up for grabs for USC. Weird to view USC as the playoff
Cinderella, but I'd rather see them than Ohio State or Alabama again.
Kansas State vs TCU, 11 am Saturday, ABC: Big 12 title game and all the stakes for TCU. They might be in with a loss, but they're definitely in with a win. Sonny Dykes is the national coach of the year without question.
LSU vs Georgia, 3 pm, CBS: There aren't any playoff implications because UGA is in even with a loss, but this one could impact Missouri. If LSU wins, the Tigers are probably in the NY6 which puts Mizzou in that pool of six bowls. If not, Birmingham is still on the table.
Purdue vs Michigan, 7 pm, FOX: Don't get me wrong, I don't care. But it's on so I'll probably watch it.
Clemson vs North Carolina, 7 pm, ABC: See above.
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